Al-Gharafa v Esteghlal FC prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:52

Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC ESTEGHLAL FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Esteghlal FC win~~37%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Esteghlal FC win at 37%.
2′KICK-OFF Al-Gharafa v Esteghlal FC
3′Much as we predicted: Esteghlal FC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
25′Much as we predicted: Esteghlal FC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 32–33–34
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Esteghlal FC · Esteghlal FC
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al-Gharafa 0–1 Esteghlal FC
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al-Gharafa 0–1 Esteghlal FC · Jasir Asani
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Jaloliddin Masharipov · Esteghlal FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Roozbeh Cheshmi · Esteghlal FC
45′HALF-TIME Al-Gharafa 0–1 Esteghlal FC
46′SECOND HALF Al-Gharafa 0–1 Esteghlal FC
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC · Jasir Asani
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC · Ferjani Sassi
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Esteghlal FC · On: Alireza Koushki · Off: Jaloliddin Masharipov Corrected
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC · Ferjani Sassi
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC · Hossein Goudarzi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al-Gharafa · On: Amro Surag · Off: Frank Magri Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Esteghlal FC · On: Mohammadhossein Eslami · Off: Jasir Asani Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Gharafa · On: Florinel Coman · Off: Seydou Sano Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Gharafa · On: Mason Holgate · Off: Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al-Gharafa · On: Amjed Nasar Mohamed · Off: Yacine Brahimi Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Esmaeil Gholizadeh · Esteghlal FC
FTFULL TIME Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC
FTAl-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FC · Esteghlal FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Al-Gharafa win35%

Draw28%

Esteghlal FC win37%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:15

VenueThani bin Jassim Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa

3-4-3

Esteghlal FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Gharafa

Esteghlal FC

27Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa

3-4-3

31 A. Kone

4 S. Sano

18 A. Al Oui

6 D. Traore

2 A. Al Rashidi

13 F. Sassi

29 F. Diaz

23 S. Fadlalla

96 A. Ounas

9 F. Magri

8 Y. Brahimi

Coach · Pedro Martins

Substitutes

1 · K. N'Diaye

24 · H. Kahiout

27 · M. Holgate

5 · M. Essam

22 · A. Hassan

49 · R. Faragalla

16 · J. Friakh

97 · A. Mohamed

90 · H. Aladin

7 · F. Coman

11 · A. Surag

45 · M. Al Mulla

Esteghlal FC

Formation not confirmed

76 H. Farabbasi

6 S. Fallah

33 A. Aghasi

5 R. Ashurmatov

2 S. Hardani

8 A. Razzaghinia

4 R. Cheshmi

27 H. Goudarzi

10 J. Masharipov

11 S. Saharkhizan

87 E. Gholizadeh

Coach · –

Substitutes

60 · S. Hosseinifar

40 · N. Ahoora

44 · I. Ebrahimi

88 · M. Ahmadi

15 · A. Zamani

36 · A. Mohebali

26 · M. G. Heydari

20 · A. Koushki

9 · M. Mohammadi

80 · M. Eslami

7 · J. Asani

Our number · esteghlal fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

37% The market41%

Us37%

~~Market~~41%

We make Esteghlal FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · esteghlal fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Gharafa win	35%	33%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+2
Esteghlal FC win	37%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	55%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	34%	−11
Al-Gharafa or draw	63%	59%	+4
Al-Gharafa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Esteghlal FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.2 10.5 6.8 2.8 1 10.1 13.4 8.1 3.3 2 6.2 7.7 4.8 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Gharafa down, Esteghlal FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,935 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 12 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Gharafa play in the Stars League, Esteghlal FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Gharafa are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Al-Gharafa, 1.24 for Esteghlal FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 18:49. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~EST 3–0 ALG

Form · last six in AFC Champions League Elite

AL-GHARAFA

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 1–2

ESTEGHLAL FC

DDWDLW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Ittihad FC	2	+3	4
2	Gamba Osaka	2	+3	4
3	Pakhtakor	2	+3	4
4	Kashima	1	+6	3
5	Al Ain	1	+4	3
6	Esteghlal FC	1	+3	3
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	1	+2	3
8	Beijing Guoan	1	+2	3
9	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	1	+1	3
10	Al-Qadisiyah FC	1	+1	3
11	Jeonbuk Motors	1	+1	3
12	Vissel Kobe	1	+1	3
13	Daejeon Citizen	1	+1	3
14	Neftchi	1	+1	3
15	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	1	+1	3
16	Công An Nhân Dân	2	−1	3
17	Al Shamal	1	0	1
18	Al-Ahli Jeddah	1	0	1
19	Buriram United	1	0	1
20	Johor Darul Takzim FC	1	0	1
21	Gangwon FC	1	0	1
22	Al-Gharafa	1	−1	0
23	Al-Wasl FC	1	−1	0
24	Kashiwa Reysol	1	−1	0
25	Port FC	1	−1	0
26	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	−1	0
27	Kyoto Sanga	1	−1	0
28	Tractor Sazi	1	−1	0
29	Ratchaburi	1	−2	0
30	Pohang Steelers	1	−2	0
31	Adelaide United	1	−2	0
32	Al-Jazira	1	−3	0
33	Al Hussein	1	−3	0
34	Al Sadd	1	−3	0
35	Al-Nassr	1	−4	0
36	Newcastle Jets	1	−6	0