Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa prediction · AFC Champions League Elite

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-Ahli JeddahDrawAl-Gharafa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ahli Jeddah 82%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Ahli Jeddah 82%, draw 12%, Al-Gharafa 6%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-GharafaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah win82%

Draw12%

Al-Gharafa win6%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueAlinma Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Gharafa

3Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · Stars League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ahli jeddah winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Al-Ahli Jeddah an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Gharafa~~2.99 – 0.75

~~Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ahli Jeddah win

Published at 81%, 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ahli Jeddah win	82%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Al-Gharafa win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw	94%	–	–
Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheet	47%	–	–
Al-Gharafa clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 2.6 1 6.9 5.5 2 10.6 7.9 3.0 3 10.6 7.9 3.0 4 7.9 5.9 2.2 5 4.8 3.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ahli Jeddah down, Al-Gharafa across0–5 goals a side shown (91.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,758 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al-Ahli Jeddah play in the Saudi Pro League, Al-Gharafa in Stars League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al-Ahli Jeddah are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

2.99 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0.75 for Al-Gharafa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALA 4–0 ALG · ALA 4–2 ALG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Champions League Elite this season · since 14 Sept

AL-AHLI JEDDAH

DW1–1 · 3–1

AL-GHARAFA

LL1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · West Region

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ain	2	+7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	+4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	+3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	+2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	+2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	+1	4
7	Neftchi	2	−1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	−2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	−1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	−1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	−2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	−3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	−4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	−5	0