Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › AFC Challenge League › Wathba v Al Nejmeh

Back

Wathba v Al Nejmeh

Wathba
2–1Full time
Al Nejmeh

AFC Challenge League · TUE 20 OCT · Hisor Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30
Wathba 2–1 Al Nejmeh WATHBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wathba win36%
The market said29%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.613
The market’s Brier score0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wathba win at 36%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Wathba 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–34–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wathba v Al Nejmeh
  4. 15′Wathba ahead on 14′ through Will. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  5. 15′We said Wathba at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Wathba 1–0 Al Nejmeh · Will
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 22′A. Kneni scores for Al Nejmeh on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–40–27
  9. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Wathba 1–1 Al Nejmeh · A. Kneni
  10. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 33% now
  11. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Wathba win 73%)
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Wathba 1–1 Al Nejmeh
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Nejmeh · On: H. Kourani · Off: A. Sene
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Wathba 1–1 Al Nejmeh
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  16. 53′We said Wathba at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
  17. 63′62′: A. Barakat on the scoresheet for Wathba, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  18. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Wathba 2–1 Al Nejmeh · A. Barakat
  19. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 83% now
  20. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Wathba win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 63%)
  21. 64′We said Wathba at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  22. 64′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Nejmeh · On: M. Haidar · Off: R. Michael
  24. 67′We said Wathba at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Nejmeh · On: M. Kassas · Off: A. Arda
  26. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
  27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wathba · On: E. Laszo · Off: M. Al Ghoul
  28. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wathba · On: M. Farawi · Off: Will
  29. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Nejmeh · On: K. Quejada · Off: A. Fadel
  30. 76′We said Wathba at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  31. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wathba · On: M. Mhanna · Off: Francisco Politino
  32. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' M. Salifu · Al Nejmeh
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al Nejmeh · On: L. Jarjou · Off: H. Kourani
  34. 84′We said Wathba at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wathba · On: J. Al Bitar · Off: K. Meshleb
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wathba · On: M. Shofan · Off: S. Shoufan
  37. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Wathba win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
  38. FTFULL TIME Wathba 2–1 Al Nejmeh
  39. FTWathba 2–1 Al Nejmeh · Wathba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wathba just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wathba 36%, draw 34%, Al Nejmeh 30%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Wathba v Al NejmehBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Wathba win36%
Draw34%
Al Nejmeh win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Line-ups

Wathba

Al Nejmeh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wathba

Al Nejmeh

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wathba

Formation not confirmed

95 K. Ibrahim

16 I. Al Khalil

25 Y. Al Hamawi

2 F. Atsama

6 K. Meshleb

5 S. Shoufan

20 Will

8 K. Hmeisha

24 M. Al Ghoul

30 Francisco Politino

19 A. Barakat

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Assi

98 · I. Haidar

27 · M. Farawi

99 · E. Laszo

14 · J. Al Bitar

40 · M. Horso Mwaku

7 · W. Al Rifaee

10 · A. Bota

23 · M. Mhanna

33 · A. Kullab

4 · M. Shofan

29 · N. Blaise

Al Nejmeh

Formation not confirmed

95 M. Matar

6 H. Al Zein

5 K. Khamis

18 K. El Zein

28 A. Kneni

21 A. Fadel

36 M. Salifu

17 R. Michael

66 A. Arda

49 Ibrahim

70 A. Sene

Coach · Lassad Dridi

Substitutes

90 · A. Halal

2 · A. Ismail

4 · A. Sharqawi

20 · H. Kourani

7 · A. Al Haj

19 · H. Jaafar

71 · H. Siblini

26 · O. Ghantous

10 · M. Haidar

11 · M. Kassas

9 · K. Quejada

31 · L. Jarjou

Our number · wathba winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
36% The market29%
Us36%
Market29%

We make Wathba a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wathba v Al Nejmeh0.93 – 0.82
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Wathba win29% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 11:43
Our probability · Wathba win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wathba win36%29%+7
Draw34%28%+6
Al Nejmeh win30%42%−12
Over 2.5 goals26%46%−20
Both teams to score34%––
Over 1.5 goals53%––
Over 3.5 goals10%––
Wathba or draw70%58%+12
Wathba clean sheet44%––
Al Nejmeh clean sheet39%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.8%
0123450 17.8 13.7 5.8 1 15.8 13.7 5.4 2 7.6 6.2 2.5 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wathba down, Al Nejmeh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

WATHBA

DW1–1 · 1–0

AL NEJMEH

W1–0