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Tainan City v Yangon United

Tainan City
1–1Full time
Yangon United

AFC Challenge League · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Segiri

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Tainan City 1–1 Yangon United TAINAN CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Tainan City win43%
The market said27%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.817
The market’s Brier score0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tainan City win at 43%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Tainan City 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Tainan City v Yangon United
  4. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' T. Nimely · Yangon United
  5. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Tainan City win 36%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Tainan City 0–0 Yangon United
  7. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yangon United · On: M. Djidjiwa · Off: T. Nimely
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tainan City · On: Matheus Porto · Off: Liu Ho-Han
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Tainan City 0–0 Yangon United
  10. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  11. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. Moreno · Tainan City
  12. 54′We said Tainan City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–45–24
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–46–24
  14. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Tainan City · On: Chen Wei-Jen · Off: Tsai Cheng-Ju
  15. 58′M. Djidjiwa scores for Yangon United on 56′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–71
  16. 58′We said Tainan City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–71
  17. 58′⚽ GOAL · 56' Tainan City 0–1 Yangon United · M. Djidjiwa
  18. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
  19. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Yangon United win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 47%)
  20. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tainan City · On: Fong Shao-Chi · Off: Wu Chun-Ching
  21. 66′We said Tainan City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  22. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' A. Saito · Yangon United
  23. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' K. Young · Tainan City
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yangon United · On: M. Michel · Off: A. Saito
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Yangon United · On: P. Kyaw · Off: T. Paing
  26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  27. 74′74′: I. Opoku on the scoresheet for Tainan City, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–66–15
  28. 74′We said Tainan City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
  29. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Tainan City 1–1 Yangon United · I. Opoku
  30. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
  31. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Yangon United win 81%)
  32. 75′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 18–67–14
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Yangon United · On: T. R. Soe · Off: Thiago Tomais
  34. 79′We said Tainan City at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
  35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Yangon United · On: Kyaw Ar kar · Off: Khant Aung Myo
  37. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Tainan City · On: Oh Se-Sim · Off: I. Opoku
  38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tainan City · On: Wang Ruei · Off: P. Kuo
  39. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Matheus Porto · Tainan City
  40. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Tainan City win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Tainan City 1–1 Yangon United
  42. FTTainan City 1–1 Yangon United · Tainan City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tainan City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tainan City 43%, draw 27%, Yangon United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tainan City v Yangon UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tainan City win43%
Draw27%
Yangon United win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueStadion Segiri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tainan City

Yangon United

3Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 18 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tainan city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
43% The market27%
Us43%
Market27%

We make Tainan City a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tainan City v Yangon United1.47 – 1.20
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW0 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L1
The market · Tainan City win27% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:28
Our probability · Tainan City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tainan City win43%27%+16
Draw27%28%−1
Yangon United win30%45%−15
Over 2.5 goals50%47%+3
Both teams to score54%54%0
Over 1.5 goals75%70%+5
Over 3.5 goals28%28%0
Tainan City or draw70%55%+15
Tainan City clean sheet30%––
Yangon United clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 7.4 7.9 5.0 1 9.8 12.6 7.3 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.4 2.1 3 3.7 4.4 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tainan City down, Yangon United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

TAINAN CITY

DL2–2 · 1–3

YANGON UNITED

WL2–1 · 0–2