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Tainan City v Pusamania Borneo

Tainan City
1–3Full time
Pusamania Borneo

AFC Challenge League · WED 21 OCT · Stadion Segiri

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31
Tainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo PUSAMANIA BORNEO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Pusamania Borneo win82%
The market said75%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.048
The market’s Brier score0.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pusamania Borneo win at 82%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Pusamania Borneo 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 6–12–82
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tainan City v Pusamania Borneo
  4. 11′Kim Sang-Jun scores for Tainan City on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 20–21–58
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo · Kim Sang-Jun
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 58% now
  7. 12′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–0 · 21–21–58
  8. 19′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–0 · 23–23–54
  9. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 52% now
  10. 28′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–0 · 26–26–48
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 27–26–47
  12. 34′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–0 · 28–27–44
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 42% now
  14. 41′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 32–29–39
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pusamania Borneo · On: M. Astina · Off: Gabriel Oliveira
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo
  18. 47′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 35–31–34
  19. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 32% now
  20. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Tainan City win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Pusamania Borneo win 36%)
  21. 52′51′: J. Villa on the scoresheet for Pusamania Borneo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 9–30–61
  22. 52′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 1–1 · 9–30–61
  23. 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Tainan City 1–1 Pusamania Borneo · J. Villa
  24. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 61% now
  25. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Pusamania Borneo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Tainan City win 38%)
  26. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Wilker · Tainan City
  27. 58′Pusamania Borneo ahead on 57′ through K. N'Goma. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
  28. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tainan City 1–2 Pusamania Borneo · K. N'Goma
  29. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 91% now
  30. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tainan City · On: Chen Wei-Jen · Off: Wu Chun-Ching
  31. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tainan City · On: Matheus Porto · Off: Oh Se-Sim
  32. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pusamania Borneo · On: A. Brkic · Off: R. Okada
  33. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 92% now
  34. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Pusamania Borneo · On: I. Zikrak · Off: H. Samir
  35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: Christian · Off: D. Sonriza
  36. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: Rubio · Off: M. Diarra
  37. 77′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  38. 80′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  39. 84′Amar Brkic scores for Pusamania Borneo on 82′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  40. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Wilker Henrique da Silva · Tainan City
  41. 84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo · Amar Brkic
  42. 85′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  43. 85′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  44. FTFULL TIME Tainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo
  45. FTTainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo · Pusamania Borneo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pusamania Borneo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tainan City 6%, draw 12%, Pusamania Borneo 82%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Tainan City v Pusamania BorneoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Tainan City win6%
Draw12%
Pusamania Borneo win82%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueStadion Segiri

Line-ups

Tainan City

Pusamania Borneo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tainan City

Pusamania Borneo

10Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Taiwan Football Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · AFC Challenge League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tainan City

Formation not confirmed

1 Pan Wen-Chieh

13 P. Kuo

3 Kim Sung-Kyum

29 K. Moreno

14 Liu Ho-Han

11 Wu Chun-Ching

6 K. Young

17 I. Opoku

7 Oh Se-Sim

12 Kim Sang-Jun

9 Wilker

Coach · Chang Sheng-Ping

Substitutes

22 · Hung Shih-Cheng

5 · Wang Ruei

4 · Fong Shao-Chi

24 · Dai Ya-Cheng

33 · Chen Wei-Jen

10 · Matheus Porto

8 · Tsai Cheng-Ju

20 · K. Adop

18 · L. Chia-le

28 · Y. Ching-chun

19 · Lin Ming-Wei

31 · P. Wang

Pusamania Borneo

Formation not confirmed

41 Kadu

2 R. Okada

89 D. Mikolajewski

35 I. Mendonca

55 D. Sonriza

15 Sousa

10 J. Villa

53 K. N'Goma

65 Gabriel Oliveira

18 H. Samir

19 M. Diarra

Coach · Mauro Jeronimo

Substitutes

27 · A. Setiawan

24 · D. Michiels

33 · R. Adi

16 · K. Teguh

77 · Christian

6 · I. Zikrak

8 · M. Astina

90 · Patrick

26 · A. Habib

17 · R. Fachgi

9 · Rubio

11 · A. Brkic

Our number · pusamania borneo winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
82% The market75%
Us82%
Market75%

We make Pusamania Borneo an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–3.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tainan City v Pusamania Borneo0.71 – 2.96
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Pusamania Borneo win75% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85%90% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 12:45
Our probability · Pusamania Borneo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 85%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tainan City win6%8%−2
Draw12%16%−4
Pusamania Borneo win82%75%+7
Over 2.5 goals71%59%+12
Both teams to score48%41%+7
Over 1.5 goals88%80%+8
Over 3.5 goals50%39%+11
Tainan City or draw18%25%−7
Tainan City clean sheet5%––
Pusamania Borneo clean sheet49%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.2%
0123450 2.7 7.4 11.2 11.1 8.2 4.91 5.5 7.9 7.8 5.8 3.42 2.8 2.8 2.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tainan City down, Pusamania Borneo across0–5 goals a side shown (92.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

TAINAN CITY

D2–2

PUSAMANIA BORNEO

W2–0