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Tainan City v Pusamania Borneo
Tainan City
Pusamania BorneoAFC Challenge League · WED 21 OCT · Stadion Segiri
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Pusamania Borneo win at 82%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Pusamania Borneo 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 6–12–82
- 1′KICK-OFF Tainan City v Pusamania Borneo
- 11′Kim Sang-Jun scores for Tainan City on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 20–21–58
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo · Kim Sang-Jun
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 58% now
- 12′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–0 · 21–21–58
- 19′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–0 · 23–23–54
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 52% now
- 28′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–0 · 26–26–48
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 27–26–47
- 34′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–0 · 28–27–44
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 42% now
- 41′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 32–29–39
- 45′HALF-TIME Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pusamania Borneo · On: M. Astina · Off: Gabriel Oliveira
- 46′SECOND HALF Tainan City 1–0 Pusamania Borneo
- 47′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 35–31–34
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 32% now
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Tainan City win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Pusamania Borneo win 36%)
- 52′51′: J. Villa on the scoresheet for Pusamania Borneo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 9–30–61
- 52′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 1–1 · 9–30–61
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Tainan City 1–1 Pusamania Borneo · J. Villa
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 61% now
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Pusamania Borneo win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Tainan City win 38%)
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Wilker · Tainan City
- 58′Pusamania Borneo ahead on 57′ through K. N'Goma. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tainan City 1–2 Pusamania Borneo · K. N'Goma
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 91% now
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tainan City · On: Chen Wei-Jen · Off: Wu Chun-Ching
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tainan City · On: Matheus Porto · Off: Oh Se-Sim
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pusamania Borneo · On: A. Brkic · Off: R. Okada
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Pusamania Borneo win: 82% at kick-off, 92% now
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Pusamania Borneo · On: I. Zikrak · Off: H. Samir
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: Christian · Off: D. Sonriza
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: Rubio · Off: M. Diarra
- 77′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
- 80′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 84′Amar Brkic scores for Pusamania Borneo on 82′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Wilker Henrique da Silva · Tainan City
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo · Amar Brkic
- 85′We said Pusamania Borneo at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
- 85′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Tainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo
- FTTainan City 1–3 Pusamania Borneo · Pusamania Borneo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Pusamania Borneo are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Tainan City 6%, draw 12%, Pusamania Borneo 82%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Tainan City win6%
Pusamania Borneo win82%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueStadion Segiri
Match timeline
All events
Tainan CityMIN
Pusamania BorneoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Tainan City
Pusamania Borneo
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Tainan City
Pusamania Borneo
Last match: 11 Oct · Taiwan Football Premier League
Last match: 18 Oct · AFC Challenge League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Tainan City
Formation not confirmed
1 Pan Wen-Chieh
13 P. Kuo
3 Kim Sung-Kyum
29 K. Moreno
14 Liu Ho-Han
11 Wu Chun-Ching
6 K. Young
17 I. Opoku
7 Oh Se-Sim
12 Kim Sang-Jun
9 Wilker
Coach · Chang Sheng-Ping
Substitutes
22 · Hung Shih-Cheng
5 · Wang Ruei
4 · Fong Shao-Chi
24 · Dai Ya-Cheng
33 · Chen Wei-Jen
10 · Matheus Porto
8 · Tsai Cheng-Ju
20 · K. Adop
18 · L. Chia-le
28 · Y. Ching-chun
19 · Lin Ming-Wei
31 · P. Wang
Pusamania Borneo
Formation not confirmed
41 Kadu
2 R. Okada
89 D. Mikolajewski
35 I. Mendonca
55 D. Sonriza
15 Sousa
10 J. Villa
53 K. N'Goma
65 Gabriel Oliveira
18 H. Samir
19 M. Diarra
Coach · Mauro Jeronimo
Substitutes
27 · A. Setiawan
24 · D. Michiels
33 · R. Adi
16 · K. Teguh
77 · Christian
6 · I. Zikrak
8 · M. Astina
90 · Patrick
26 · A. Habib
17 · R. Fachgi
9 · Rubio
11 · A. Brkic
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Tainan City
Formation not confirmed
1 Pan Wen-Chieh
13 P. Kuo
3 Kim Sung-Kyum
29 K. Moreno
14 Liu Ho-Han
11 Wu Chun-Ching
6 K. Young
17 I. Opoku
7 Oh Se-Sim
12 Kim Sang-Jun
9 Wilker
Coach · Chang Sheng-Ping
Substitutes
22 · Hung Shih-Cheng
5 · Wang Ruei
4 · Fong Shao-Chi
24 · Dai Ya-Cheng
33 · Chen Wei-Jen
10 · Matheus Porto
8 · Tsai Cheng-Ju
20 · K. Adop
18 · L. Chia-le
28 · Y. Ching-chun
19 · Lin Ming-Wei
31 · P. Wang
Pusamania Borneo
Formation not confirmed
41 Kadu
2 R. Okada
89 D. Mikolajewski
35 I. Mendonca
55 D. Sonriza
15 Sousa
10 J. Villa
53 K. N'Goma
65 Gabriel Oliveira
18 H. Samir
19 M. Diarra
Coach · Mauro Jeronimo
Substitutes
27 · A. Setiawan
24 · D. Michiels
33 · R. Adi
16 · K. Teguh
77 · Christian
6 · I. Zikrak
8 · M. Astina
90 · Patrick
26 · A. Habib
17 · R. Fachgi
9 · Rubio
11 · A. Brkic
We make Pusamania Borneo an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–3.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 85%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tainan City win | 6% | 8% | −2 |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | −4 |
| Pusamania Borneo win | 82% | 75% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 59% | +12 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 41% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 80% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Tainan City or draw | 18% | 25% | −7 |
| Tainan City clean sheet | 5% | – | – |
| Pusamania Borneo clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug
TAINAN CITY
PUSAMANIA BORNEO