Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › AFC Challenge League › Shan United v Hang Yuen

Back

Shan United v Hang Yuen

Shan United
1–1Full time
Hang Yuen

AFC Challenge League · SUN 18 OCT · Thuwunna Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06
Shan United 1–1 Hang Yuen SHAN UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shan United win45%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.743
The market’s Brier score0.912

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shan United win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shan United was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shan United v Hang Yuen
  4. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Shan United win 36%)
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  6. 45′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–46–21
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Shan United 0–0 Hang Yuen
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Shan United 0–0 Hang Yuen
  9. 54′Hang Yuen ahead on 53′ through L. Hai-cheng. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–23–70
  10. 54′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–23–70
  11. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Shan United 0–1 Hang Yuen · L. Hai-cheng (assist S. Koreeda)
  12. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 6% now
  13. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Hang Yuen win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
  14. 55′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–23–71
  15. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Shan United · On: Sone Phyo Pyae · Off: Soe Aung Wunna
  16. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Shan United · On: Moe Thet Wai · Off: Damian Puentes
  17. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  18. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Edson · Shan United
  19. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Hang Yuen · On: E. Argueta · Off: L. Hai-cheng
  20. 62′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  21. 65′Moe Thet Wai scores for Shan United on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–61–15
  22. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Shan United 1–1 Hang Yuen · Moe Thet Wai (assist Edson)
  23. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
  24. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Hang Yuen win 15%)
  25. 66′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–62–15
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hang Yuen · On: Chen Pao-Chun · Off: S. Chang
  27. 71′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hang Yuen · On: P. S. Wu · Off: C. Huang
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shan United · On: Soe Thet Hein · Off: N. Kyaw
  30. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shan United · On: Thar Zwe Manh · Off: Edson
  31. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  32. 77′We said Shan United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
  33. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' K. Oo · Shan United
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hang Yuen · On: T. Lee · Off: W. Lopez
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hang Yuen · On: Y. Lu · Off: P. Ng
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Shan United · On: A. Nyein Chan · Off: Aung Ye Yint
  37. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Shan United win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  38. FTFULL TIME Shan United 1–1 Hang Yuen
  39. FTShan United 1–1 Hang Yuen · Shan United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shan United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shan United 45%, draw 31%, Hang Yuen 25%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Shan United v Hang YuenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shan United win45%
Draw31%
Hang Yuen win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueThuwunna Stadium

Line-ups

Shan United

Hang Yuen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shan United

Hang Yuen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 11 Oct · Taiwan Football Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shan United

Formation not confirmed

18 Phyo Kyaw Zin

15 Soe Aung Wunna

3 Thu Ye Min

77 R. Nanitelamio

6 N. Kyaw

4 S. Banahene

9 Damian Puentes

33 K. Oo

27 M. Sekyi

11 Aung Ye Yint

99 Edson

Coach · Aung Khaing U

Substitutes

1 · Thu Pyae Phyo

13 · N. Sai Thiha

17 · N. N. Soe

66 · Tun Thu Rein

44 · Soe Thet Hein

22 · Sone Phyo Pyae

28 · E. Boateng

25 · A. Nyein Chan

21 · D. Tokarev

19 · Moe Thet Wai

24 · Thar Zwe Manh

Hang Yuen

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Jacobs

5 N. Sakurauchi

2 Y. C. Huang

6 C. Huang

9 P. Ng

3 W. Lopez

8 K. Sato

7 S. Chang

17 Wang Po-Ying

10 S. Koreeda

25 L. Hai-cheng

Coach · Chin-Hwai Hung

Substitutes

18 · P. Chang

11 · N. Kaneko

26 · E. Argueta

24 · Y. T. Lu

14 · E. Tsai

20 · T. Lee

23 · C. Jhou

19 · K. Chen

13 · Chen Pao-Chun

16 · Y. Lu

21 · T. Lin

15 · P. S. Wu

Our number · shan united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market53%
Us45%
Market53%

We make Shan United a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shan United v Hang Yuen1.21 – 0.83
The market · Shan United win53% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 10:16
Our probability · Shan United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shan United win45%53%−8
Draw31%24%+7
Hang Yuen win25%23%+2
Over 2.5 goals33%58%−25
Both teams to score40%58%−18
Over 1.5 goals61%81%−20
Over 3.5 goals15%38%−23
Shan United or draw75%77%−2
Shan United clean sheet44%––
Hang Yuen clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%
0123450 13.4 10.4 4.5 1 15.3 13.5 5.4 2 9.5 7.9 3.3 3 3.8 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shan United down, Hang Yuen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

SHAN UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

HANG YUEN

W2–1