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Regar-TadAZ v Al Qadsia

Regar-TadAZ
0–1Full time
Al Qadsia

AFC Challenge League · TUE 20 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 21:01
Regar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia AL QADSIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Al Qadsia win50%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.385
The market’s Brier score0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Qadsia win at 50%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Regar-TadAZ v Al Qadsia
  3. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Qadsia was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 19–32–50
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al Qadsia win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  5. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' A. Safarov · Regar-TadAZ
  6. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Al Qadsia win 42%)
  7. 39′We said Al Qadsia at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 17–45–38
  8. 45′We published Al Qadsia at 50%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  9. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Regar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia
  10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al Qadsia win: 50% at kick-off, 84% now
  11. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Al Qadsia win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 48%)
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Regar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia
  13. 46′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 2–13–84
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Regar-TadAZ · On: M. Mbollo · Off: A. Safarov
  15. 47′Al Qadsia ahead on 45′ through N. Al Rawahi. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–13–84
  16. 48′HALF-TIME Regar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia
  17. 49′We published Al Qadsia at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  18. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' B. Kalandarov · Regar-TadAZ
  19. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' H. Khabba · Al Qadsia
  20. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Qadsia · On: A. Lkhdar · Off: Abdalla Ahmed
  21. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' S. Makhamadiev · Regar-TadAZ
  22. 69′We published Al Qadsia at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  23. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Al Qadsia win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Regar-TadAZ · On: O. Panzhiev · Off: S. Makhamadiev
  25. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Regar-TadAZ · On: N. Babajanov · Off: A. Khaitov
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Regar-TadAZ · On: F. Davlatov · Off: A. Sharipov
  27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Qadsia · On: A. A. Wadi Enizi A. · Off: Dahman
  28. 81′We published Al Qadsia at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  29. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Regar-TadAZ · On: E. Kingue · Off: M. Assomo
  30. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Qadsia · On: K. Al Kharqawi · Off: H. Khabba
  31. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Qadsia · On: B. Jamal · Off: M. Al Dhafiri
  32. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' A. Nozimov · Regar-TadAZ
  33. 96′Full time, 0–1. We called Al Qadsia at 50% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  34. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' T. Severin · Regar-TadAZ
  35. FTFULL TIME Regar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia
  36. FTRegar-TadAZ 0–1 Al Qadsia · Al Qadsia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Qadsia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Regar-TadAZ 19%, draw 31%, Al Qadsia 50%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Regar-TadAZ v Al QadsiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Regar-TadAZ win19%
Draw31%
Al Qadsia win50%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Line-ups

Regar-TadAZ

Al Qadsia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Regar-TadAZ

Al Qadsia

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Regar-TadAZ

Formation not confirmed

38 T. Severin

18 A. Sharipov

44 J. Feumba

29 F. Ndongo

4 B. Kalandarov

27 D. Imomnazarov

10 S. Makhamadiev

7 A. Khaitov

8 A. Nozimov

30 M. Assomo

9 A. Safarov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Makhmudzoda

2 · A. Melikmurodov

12 · P. Arthur

74 · S. Giyosov

20 · O. Panzhiev

11 · F. Davlatov

6 · E. Kingue

13 · N. Babajanov

99 · M. Mbollo

21 · D. Ganiev

Al Qadsia

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Youssef

4 R. Al Dosary

36 K. Ebrahim

6 K. Al Fadhli

3 M. Al Dhafiri

21 Dahman

8 Abdalla Ahmed

28 J. Al Mutar

5 C. Gbo

7 N. Al Rawahi

23 H. Khabba

Coach · Abdullah Al Haqqan

Substitutes

22 · S. Al Jenaie

78 · S. Al-Rais

31 · T. Al Fadhel

13 · B. Jamal

14 · A. A. Wadi Enizi A.

9 · K. Al Kharqawi

11 · E. Al Rashedi

17 · B. Al Mutawa

19 · A. Boodai

77 · A. Lkhdar

29 · A. Al Shallal

2 · A. Al Yahya

Our number · al qadsia winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
50% The market53%
Us50%
Market53%

We make Al Qadsia a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Regar-TadAZ v Al Qadsia0.62 – 1.20
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 12 AugW2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Al Qadsia win53% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 18:15
Our probability · Al Qadsia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Regar-TadAZ win19%22%−3
Draw31%26%+5
Al Qadsia win50%53%−3
Over 2.5 goals28%50%−22
Both teams to score33%51%−18
Over 1.5 goals55%73%−18
Over 3.5 goals11%29%−18
Regar-TadAZ or draw50%47%+3
Regar-TadAZ clean sheet30%––
Al Qadsia clean sheet54%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 19.0%
0123450 16.5 19.0 11.7 4.7 1 9.6 12.5 7.3 2.9 2 3.1 3.7 2.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Regar-TadAZ down, Al Qadsia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 12 Aug

REGAR-TADAZ

WW3–0 · 2–1

AL QADSIA

W3–0