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Pusamania Borneo v Yangon United

Pusamania Borneo
2–0Full time
Yangon United

AFC Challenge League · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Segiri

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Pusamania Borneo 2–0 Yangon United PUSAMANIA BORNEO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Pusamania Borneo win86%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.033
The market’s Brier score0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pusamania Borneo win at 86%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Pusamania Borneo 86% before kick-off, 86% now. 0–0 · 86–11–4
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Pusamania Borneo v Yangon United
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Pusamania Borneo win: 86% at kick-off, 76% now
  5. 34′We said Pusamania Borneo at 86%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 0–0 · 74–20–5
  6. 44′We said Pusamania Borneo at 86%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–25–6
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Pusamania Borneo 0–0 Yangon United
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Pusamania Borneo 0–0 Yangon United
  9. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pusamania Borneo · On: K. N'Goma · Off: H. Samir
  10. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Pusamania Borneo win: 86% at kick-off, 66% now
  11. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Korvah · Yangon United
  12. 51′We said Pusamania Borneo at 86%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–30–6
  13. 54′53′: I. Mendonca on the scoresheet for Pusamania Borneo, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
  14. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Pusamania Borneo 1–0 Yangon United · I. Mendonca
  15. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Pusamania Borneo win: 86% at kick-off, 94% now
  16. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Gabriel Oliveira · Pusamania Borneo
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pusamania Borneo · On: I. Zikrak · Off: Gabriel Oliveira
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Yangon United · On: T. R. Soe · Off: T. Nimely
  19. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: Sousa · Off: A. Warman
  20. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pusamania Borneo · On: D. Mikolajewski · Off: A. Brkic
  21. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yangon United · On: A. Saito · Off: M. Djidjiwa
  22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yangon United · On: P. Moe · Off: T. Paing
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Pusamania Borneo win: 86% at kick-off, 96% now
  24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Pusamania Borneo · On: M. Diarra · Off: Arthur
  25. 81′Pusamania Borneo ahead on 81′ through M. Diarra. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 81′We said Pusamania Borneo at 86% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Pusamania Borneo 2–0 Yangon United · M. Diarra
  28. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yangon United · On: C. Aye · Off: A. Korvah
  29. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Yangon United · On: Kyaw Ar kar · Off: Thein Zaw Win
  30. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' C. Aye · Yangon United
  31. FTFULL TIME Pusamania Borneo 2–0 Yangon United
  32. FTPusamania Borneo 2–0 Yangon United · Pusamania Borneo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pusamania Borneo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pusamania Borneo 86%, draw 11%, Yangon United 4%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Pusamania Borneo v Yangon UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pusamania Borneo win86%
Draw11%
Yangon United win4%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueStadion Segiri

Line-ups

Pusamania Borneo

Yangon United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pusamania Borneo

Yangon United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga 1 (Indonesia)

Last match: 11 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pusamania Borneo

Formation not confirmed

41 Kadu

11 A. Brkic

77 Christian

35 I. Mendonca

33 R. Adi

8 M. Astina

36 A. Warman

10 J. Villa

18 H. Samir

70 Arthur

65 Gabriel Oliveira

Coach · Mauro Jeronimo

Substitutes

27 · A. Setiawan

24 · D. Michiels

16 · K. Teguh

2 · R. Okada

95 · I. Ohorella

6 · I. Zikrak

89 · D. Mikolajewski

15 · Sousa

90 · Patrick

53 · K. N'Goma

19 · M. Diarra

26 · A. Habib

Yangon United

Formation not confirmed

75 Naing San Sat

4 Htan David

2 Hein Zeyar Lin

3 Thiago Tomais

22 Khant Min Kyaw

16 Khant Aung Myo

50 T. Nimely

19 M. Djidjiwa

79 Thein Zaw Win

12 A. Korvah

9 T. Paing

Coach · Gerd Zeise

Substitutes

1 · N. N. Aung Z.

26 · T. R. Soe

47 · K. Paing

42 · H. Z. Tun

5 · P. Kyaw

21 · Htet Thar Yar Win

11 · Naing Oakkar

17 · M. Michel

34 · C. Aye

6 · Kyaw Ar kar

90 · P. Moe

8 · A. Saito

Our number · pusamania borneo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
86% The market74%
Us86%
Market74%

We make Pusamania Borneo an 86% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pusamania Borneo v Yangon United2.85 – 0.46
The market · Pusamania Borneo win74% · ours 86%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85%90% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 12:54
Our probability · Pusamania Borneo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pusamania Borneo win86%74%+12
Draw11%15%−4
Yangon United win4%10%−6
Over 2.5 goals64%68%−4
Both teams to score35%53%−18
Over 1.5 goals85%84%+1
Over 3.5 goals42%48%−6
Pusamania Borneo or draw96%90%+6
Pusamania Borneo clean sheet63%––
Yangon United clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.7%
0123450 3.8 1 10.2 5.0 2 14.7 6.9 3 14.0 6.5 4 10.0 4.7 5 5.7 2.7
under 2% 5% 12%+Pusamania Borneo down, Yangon United across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 8 Sept

PUSAMANIA BORNEO

No matches in our record yet.

YANGON UNITED

W2–1