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Model 1.2

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Paro v Al Ansar

Paro
1–2Full time
Al Ansar

AFC Challenge League · TUE 20 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:30
Paro 1–2 Al Ansar AL ANSAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ansar win58%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.266
The market’s Brier score0.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ansar win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ansar 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 20–22–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Paro v Al Ansar
  4. 2′1′: Y. Mishima on the scoresheet for Paro, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 42–23–34
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Paro 1–0 Al Ansar · Y. Mishima
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 34% now
  7. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Paro win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Al Ansar win 58%)
  8. 3′We said Al Ansar at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 43–23–34
  9. 17′We said Al Ansar at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 46–25–29
  10. 19′19′: E. Malick Tall on the scoresheet for Al Ansar. 1–0 · 46–25–29
  11. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Paro 1–1 Al Ansar · E. Malick Tall
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
  13. 19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Al Ansar win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Paro win 46%)
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  15. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' R. Mednini · Al Ansar
  16. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' N. Nangolo · Al Ansar
  17. 43′E. Malick Tall scores for Al Ansar on 42′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–15–80
  18. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Paro 1–2 Al Ansar · E. Malick Tall
  19. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  20. 44′We said Al Ansar at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 5–15–80
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Paro 1–2 Al Ansar
  22. 45′SECOND HALF Paro 1–2 Al Ansar
  23. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paro · On: T. Kazi · Off: K. Acquah
  24. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paro · On: R. Sagna · Off: S. Sadick
  25. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Ansar · On: M. Al Massri · Off: H. Houssam Eddine
  26. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Ansar · On: M. El Dor · Off: M. Kassab
  27. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Paro · On: E. Asante · Off: B. Ceesay
  28. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Paro · On: B. Touray · Off: Y. Mishima
  29. 68′We said Al Ansar at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al Ansar · On: M. Bou Saleh · Off: N. Matar
  31. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al Ansar · On: A. Akuki · Off: Sisi
  32. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  33. 76′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–2 · 1–11–88
  34. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Paro · On: R. Ichimura · Off: A. Baldeh
  35. 79′We said Al Ansar at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  36. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Ansar · On: M. Zein · Off: E. Malick Tall
  37. 86′We said Al Ansar at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  38. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Al Ansar win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  39. FTFULL TIME Paro 1–2 Al Ansar
  40. FTParo 1–2 Al Ansar · Al Ansar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ansar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paro 20%, draw 22%, Al Ansar 58%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Paro v Al AnsarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Paro win20%
Draw22%
Al Ansar win58%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChanglimithang Stadium

Line-ups

Paro

Al Ansar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paro

Al Ansar

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paro

Formation not confirmed

44 L. Saidi

15 N. Wangdi

56 T. Ndour

2 S. Jawara

77 B. Ceesay

55 K. Acquah

5 T. Hanazato

7 A. Baldeh

22 Y. Mishima

17 F. A. Oluwaseun

29 S. Sadick

Coach · Puspalal Sharma

Substitutes

1 · G. Zangpo

40 · T. Kazi

4 · U. Dorji

18 · P. Wangchuk

97 · R. Sagna

16 · T. Namgyel

80 · B. Touray

19 · R. Ichimura

14 · K. Dorji

99 · M. Jallow

11 · K. Wangchuk

25 · E. Asante

Al Ansar

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Kanj

5 N. Nassar

33 N. Nangolo

35 R. Mednini

77 M. Kassab

12 A. Khairdien

10 Sisi

31 H. Houssam Eddine

4 N. Matar

7 K. Bader

9 E. Malick Tall

Coach · Youssef Al Jawhari

Substitutes

23 · I. Moqdad

2 · M. El Dor

6 · M. E. Aoun

25 · F. Kacem

11 · M. Osman

80 · H. El Mokdad

40 · A. Akuki

3 · K. Watfa

8 · M. Bou Saleh

30 · M. Sabbah

14 · M. Zein

22 · M. Al Massri

Our number · al ansar winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
58% The market47%
Us58%
Market47%

We make Al Ansar a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Paro v Al Ansar1.10 – 2.00
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Al Ansar win47% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 12:43
Our probability · Al Ansar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Paro win20%27%−7
Draw22%26%−4
Al Ansar win58%47%+11
Over 2.5 goals60%52%+8
Both teams to score58%55%+3
Over 1.5 goals82%75%+7
Over 3.5 goals38%31%+7
Paro or draw42%53%−11
Paro clean sheet14%––
Al Ansar clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 4.8 8.7 9.0 6.0 3.0 1 4.6 10.2 9.9 6.6 3.3 2 2.7 5.5 5.5 3.6 3 2.0 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Paro down, Al Ansar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

PARO

WD2–0 · 2–2

AL ANSAR

W2–0