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Manila Digger v Shan United

Manila Digger
4–0Full time
Shan United

AFC Challenge League · SAT 24 OCT · Thuwunna Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21
Manila Digger 4–0 Shan United MANILA DIGGER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Manila Digger win67%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.170
The market’s Brier score0.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manila Digger win at 67%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Manila Digger was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Manila Digger v Shan United
  4. 29′We published Manila Digger at 67%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–3
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Manila Digger 1–0 Shan United
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Manila Digger win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
  7. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–3
  8. 30′Manila Digger ahead on 29′ through D. De Bruycker. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–3
  9. 31′We published Manila Digger at 67%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  10. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Manila Digger 2–0 Shan United
  11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Manila Digger win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  12. 32′S. Ceesay scores for Manila Digger on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  13. 39′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Shan United · On: E. Boateng · Off: Soe Aung Wunna
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Manila Digger 2–0 Shan United
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Manila Digger 2–0 Shan United
  16. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shan United · On: Thar Zwe Manh · Off: Moe Thet Wai
  17. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shan United · On: M. Sekyi · Off: Damian Puentes
  18. 75′We published Manila Digger at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Shan United · On: Sone Phyo Pyae · Off: Thu Ye Min
  20. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Manila Digger · On: P. Godwin · Off: S. Ceesay
  21. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Nanitelamio · Shan United
  22. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' E. Boateng · Shan United
  23. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' J. Esteva · Manila Digger
  24. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' U. A. Khaing · Shan United
  25. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Shan United · On: Tun Thu Rein · Off: Edson
  26. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Manila Digger · On: M. L. Bojang · Off: D. Tafem
  27. 88′87′: P. Godwin on the scoresheet for Manila Digger. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 88′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Manila Digger 3–0 Shan United · P. Godwin
  30. 90′Full time, 4–0. We called Manila Digger at 67% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Manila Digger · On: D. Vasquez · Off: E. Ndecky
  32. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Manila Digger · On: T. Limbo · Off: D. De Bruycker
  33. 94′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 94′Manila Digger ahead on 90′ through P. Godwin. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Manila Digger 4–0 Shan United
  36. FTFULL TIME Manila Digger 4–0 Shan United
  37. FTManila Digger 4–0 Shan United · Manila Digger win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manila Digger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manila Digger 67%, draw 21%, Shan United 12%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Manila Digger v Shan UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Manila Digger win67%
Draw21%
Shan United win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueThuwunna Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manila Digger

Shan United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 21 Oct · AFC Challenge League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manila digger winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
67% The market48%
Us67%
Market48%

We make Manila Digger a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Manila Digger v Shan United1.98 – 0.72
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 18 OctW1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0
The market · Manila Digger win48% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:21
Our probability · Manila Digger win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Manila Digger win67%48%+19
Draw21%30%−9
Shan United win12%22%−10
Over 2.5 goals51%44%+7
Both teams to score45%47%−2
Over 1.5 goals76%68%+8
Over 3.5 goals29%23%+6
Manila Digger or draw88%78%+10
Manila Digger clean sheet49%––
Shan United clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.2%
0123450 7.0 4.5 1 13.0 9.9 3.5 2 13.2 9.5 3.4 3 8.7 6.3 2.3 4 4.3 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Manila Digger down, Shan United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 18 Oct

MANILA DIGGER

WD5–0 · 1–1

SHAN UNITED

DW1–1 · 2–0