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Model 1.2

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Istiqlol v Wathba

Istiqlol
0–2Full time
Wathba

AFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Hisor Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02
Istiqlol 0–2 Wathba ISTIQLOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Istiqlol win42%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.859
The market’s Brier score0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Istiqlol win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Istiqlol 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Istiqlol v Wathba
  4. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' A. Karomatullozoda · Istiqlol
  5. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Istiqlol win 38%)
  6. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' F. Atsama · Wathba
  7. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' S. Kurbonov · Istiqlol
  8. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Istiqlol win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Istiqlol 0–0 Wathba
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Istiqlol 0–0 Wathba
  11. 47′We said Istiqlol at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–51–19
  12. 48′M. Al Ghoul scores for Wathba on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Istiqlol 0–1 Wathba · M. Al Ghoul
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Istiqlol win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
  15. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Wathba win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 51%)
  16. 49′We said Istiqlol at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–23–71
  17. 50′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 6–23–71
  18. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Istiqlol · On: M. Rakhimov · Off: T. Islomov
  19. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Istiqlol · On: A. Shukurov · Off: A. Dzhuraboev
  20. 58′We said Istiqlol at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  21. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Wathba · On: E. Laszo · Off: Francisco Politino
  22. 66′Istiqlol are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 3–18–79
  23. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' A. Karomatullozoda · Istiqlol
  24. 66′🟥 RED CARD · 66' A. Karomatullozoda · Istiqlol
  25. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Istiqlol win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Istiqlol · On: S. Samiev · Off: R. Soirov
  27. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Wathba · On: M. Mhanna · Off: Will
  28. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Istiqlol · On: M. Tikhonov · Off: S. Mabatshoev
  29. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Wathba · On: W. Al Rifaee · Off: M. Al Ghoul
  30. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wathba · On: J. Al Bitar · Off: S. Shoufan
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wathba · On: A. Bota · Off: A. Barakat
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Istiqlol · On: M. Odilzoda · Off: E. Pandzhshanbe
  33. 90′89′: W. Al Rifaee on the scoresheet for Wathba, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  34. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Istiqlol 0–2 Wathba · W. Al Rifaee
  35. FTFULL TIME Istiqlol 0–2 Wathba
  36. FTIstiqlol 0–2 Wathba · Istiqlol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Istiqlol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Istiqlol 42%, draw 33%, Wathba 25%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Istiqlol v WathbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Istiqlol win42%
Draw33%
Wathba win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istiqlol

Wathba

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · istiqlol winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
42% The market48%
Us42%
Market48%

We make Istiqlol a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Istiqlol v Wathba1.06 – 0.73
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L0
The market · Istiqlol win48% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 14:51
Our probability · Istiqlol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Istiqlol win42%48%−6
Draw33%30%+3
Wathba win25%23%+2
Over 2.5 goals27%39%−12
Both teams to score34%44%−10
Over 1.5 goals54%65%−11
Over 3.5 goals11%20%−9
Istiqlol or draw75%77%−2
Istiqlol clean sheet48%––
Wathba clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%
0123450 17.2 11.8 4.5 1 17.3 13.4 4.7 2 9.3 6.8 2.5 3 3.3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Istiqlol down, Wathba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

ISTIQLOL

LW0–1 · 2–0

WATHBA

DWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1