Istiqlol v Al Arabi prediction · AFC Challenge League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Istiqlol 2–0 Al Arabi AL ARABI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Arabi win~~37%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.666

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Arabi win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Arabi was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
1′KICK-OFF Istiqlol v Al Arabi
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Al Arabi win 35%)
38′We said Al Arabi at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Istiqlol 1–0 Al Arabi
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al Arabi win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Istiqlol win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 40%)
39′R. Soirov scores for Istiqlol on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–22–8
40′R. Soirov scores for Istiqlol on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Al Arabi win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
45′SECOND HALF Istiqlol 1–0 Al Arabi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: A. Khalaf · Off: W. Ould Chikh
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: Y. Majed · Off: C. Markneh
47′HALF-TIME Istiqlol 1–0 Al Arabi
59′We said Al Arabi at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' E. Pandzhshanbe · Istiqlol
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Arabi · On: A. Nasari · Off: T. Al-Matroud
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Arabi · On: B. Al Salama · Off: H. Al Harbi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Istiqlol · On: A. Shukurov · Off: E. Pandzhshanbe
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Istiqlol 2–0 Al Arabi
85′85′: A. Shukurov on the scoresheet for Istiqlol, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Arabi · On: A. Al Doukhi · Off: A. Porusaniei
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Istiqlol · On: O. Shchebetun · Off: S. Mabatshoev
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Istiqlol · On: M. Odilzoda · Off: A. Dzhalilov
94′Full time, 2–0. We called Al Arabi at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' F. Ikic · Istiqlol
FTFULL TIME Istiqlol 2–0 Al Arabi
FTIstiqlol 2–0 Al Arabi · Al Arabi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Arabi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Istiqlol 34%, draw 30%, Al Arabi 37%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Istiqlol v Al ArabiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Istiqlol win34%

Draw30%

Al Arabi win37%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Line-ups

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Istiqlol

Formation not confirmed

78 D. Kavlinov

66 V. Khanonov

5 S. Kurbonov

23 A. Karomatullozoda

26 F. Ikic

3 T. Islomov

17 E. Pandzhshanbe

6 A. Dzhuraboev

10 A. Dzhalilov

9 R. Soirov

88 S. Mabatshoev

Coach · Vitaliy Levchenko

Substitutes

99 · M. Khasanov

22 · M. Safaralii

50 · J. Tomasevic

77 · M. Tikhonov

44 · M. Khasanbekov

11 · M. Rakhimov

41 · A. Shukurov

14 · M. Odilzoda

63 · S. Samiev

8 · O. Shchebetun

20 · D. Sharipov

Al Arabi

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Al Khaledi

76 T. Al-Matroud

5 J. Aboud

27 B. Souyad

2 A. Al Awadi

6 A. Porusaniei

12 H. Al Harbi

98 Z. Qunbar

73 W. Ould Chikh

7 A. Iwuala

18 C. Markneh

Coach · Nasser Al Shatti

Substitutes

22 · S. Abdulghafoor

3 · Ammar Abdullah

16 · A. Al Rasool

21 · A. Nasari

17 · A. Khalaf

10 · B. Al Salama

13 · Y. Al Khebizi

30 · A. Al Shammari

11 · T. Al Qaisi

19 · Y. Majed

89 · F. Al Dawood

9 · A. Al Doukhi

Our number · al arabi winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

37% The market27%

Us37%

~~Market~~27%

We make Al Arabi a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Istiqlol v Al Arabi~~1.08 – 1.14

~~Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~The market · Al Arabi win~~27% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Arabi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Istiqlol win	34%	47%	−13
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Al Arabi win	37%	27%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Istiqlol or draw	63%	73%	−10
Istiqlol clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al Arabi clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.3 12.0 7.1 2.7 1 11.3 13.8 7.6 2.9 2 6.3 7.2 4.1 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Istiqlol down, Al Arabi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 410,768 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 19 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Istiqlol play in Vysshaya Liga, Al Arabi in Premier League (Kuwait).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Istiqlol are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Istiqlol, 1.14 for Al Arabi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct

ISTIQLOL

L0–1

AL ARABI

L0–1

Istiqlol v Al Arabi

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

Rest & schedule

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

Match statistics

Line-ups

Istiqlol

Al Arabi

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct