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Hang Yuen v Manila Digger

Hang Yuen
1–1Full time
Manila Digger

AFC Challenge League · WED 21 OCT · Thuwunna Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 16:01
Hang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger MANILA DIGGER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Manila Digger win55%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.852
The market’s Brier score1.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manila Digger win at 55%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Hang Yuen v Manila Digger
  3. 1′Little has changed for our model: Manila Digger 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 17–28–55
  4. 20′We said Manila Digger at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 4–13–83
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Hang Yuen 0–1 Manila Digger
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
  7. 21′21′: B. Touray on the scoresheet for Manila Digger, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–13–83
  8. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' B. Touray · Manila Digger
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  10. 39′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 16–41–43
  11. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Hang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger
  12. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
  13. 40′Hang Yuen level it on 40′ through L. Hai-cheng. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–41–43
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Hang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Hang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hang Yuen · On: Wang Po-Ying · Off: L. Hai-cheng
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Manila Digger · On: A. Gomez · Off: Z. Taningco
  18. 47′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 16–45–39
  19. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Manila Digger win 43%)
  20. 55′Hang Yuen level it on 39′ through Hai-Cheng Lin. 1–1. 1–1 · 14–51–35
  21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  22. 56′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 14–51–34
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Manila Digger · On: E. Ndecky · Off: D. Vasquez
  24. 64′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 12–59–29
  25. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  26. 70′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 11–65–24
  27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Manila Digger · On: M. L. Bojang · Off: D. De Bruycker
  28. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Manila Digger · On: T. Limbo · Off: D. Tafem
  29. 75′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 9–72–19
  30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hang Yuen · On: Y. Lu · Off: P. Ng
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hang Yuen · On: Y. T. Lu · Off: P. S. Wu
  32. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  33. 80′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 6–80–14
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Manila Digger · On: P. Godwin · Off: S. Ceesay
  35. 84′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 4–87–9
  36. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Hang Yuen · On: E. Argueta · Off: S. Koreeda
  37. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Manila Digger win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  38. 91′We said Manila Digger at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
  39. FTFULL TIME Hang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger
  40. FTHang Yuen 1–1 Manila Digger · Manila Digger win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manila Digger are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hang Yuen 17%, draw 28%, Manila Digger 55%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Hang Yuen v Manila DiggerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Hang Yuen win17%
Draw28%
Manila Digger win55%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueThuwunna Stadium

Line-ups

Hang Yuen

Manila Digger

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hang Yuen

Manila Digger

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 18 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hang Yuen

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Jacobs

6 C. Huang

5 N. Sakurauchi

2 Y. C. Huang

15 P. S. Wu

7 S. Chang

3 W. Lopez

8 K. Sato

9 P. Ng

10 S. Koreeda

25 L. Hai-cheng

Coach · Chin-Hwai Hung

Substitutes

18 · P. Chang

11 · N. Kaneko

26 · E. Argueta

24 · Y. T. Lu

17 · Wang Po-Ying

14 · E. Tsai

20 · T. Lee

23 · C. Jhou

19 · K. Chen

13 · Chen Pao-Chun

16 · Y. Lu

21 · T. Lin

Manila Digger

Formation not confirmed

16 O. Njie

26 K. Pryde

23 D. Sambou

20 M. Joof

22 Z. Taningco

24 D. Vasquez

4 A. Badjie

17 D. De Bruycker

5 D. Tafem

10 S. Ceesay

11 B. Touray

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · D. Ouattara

1 · M. Asong

6 · D. Ashley

14 · R. Andes

98 · T. Limbo

15 · M. L. Bojang

27 · J. Kihm

2 · A. Gomez

77 · S. Diao

7 · P. Godwin

18 · E. Ndecky

19 · J. Barsanilla

Our number · manila digger winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
55% The market71%
Us55%
Market71%

We make Manila Digger a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hang Yuen v Manila Digger0.69 – 1.44
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Manila Digger win71% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 13:15
Our probability · Manila Digger win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hang Yuen win17%11%+6
Draw28%18%+10
Manila Digger win55%71%−16
Over 2.5 goals36%62%−26
Both teams to score38%50%−12
Over 1.5 goals63%82%−19
Over 3.5 goals17%41%−24
Hang Yuen or draw45%29%+16
Hang Yuen clean sheet24%––
Manila Digger clean sheet50%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.8%
0123450 12.3 16.8 12.4 5.9 2.1 1 7.8 12.2 8.5 4.1 2 2.8 4.0 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hang Yuen down, Manila Digger across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

HANG YUEN

WD2–1 · 1–1

MANILA DIGGER

W5–0