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Model 1.2

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Goa v Regar-TadAZ

Goa
1–2Full time
Regar-TadAZ

AFC Challenge League · SAT 17 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Goa 1–2 Regar-TadAZ GOA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Goa win54%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.082
The market’s Brier score0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goa win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Goa 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–29–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Goa v Regar-TadAZ
  4. 7′We said Goa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Goa 1–0 Regar-TadAZ
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Goa win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  7. 9′Goa find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–4
  8. 11′Goa find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–4
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  10. 34′We said Goa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
  11. 43′Goa ahead on 8′ through Chiki. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  12. 43′We said Goa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  13. 44′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Goa 1–0 Regar-TadAZ
  15. 48′HALF-TIME Goa 1–0 Regar-TadAZ
  16. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Goa · On: L. Sharma · Off: B. Jackson
  17. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Goa
  18. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Regar-TadAZ · On: A. Khaitov · Off: E. Kingue
  19. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Regar-TadAZ
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Goa · On: R. Kharbudon · Off: A. Sangwan
  21. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Regar-TadAZ · On: A. Safarov · Off: M. Mbollo
  22. 67′We said Goa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Goa · On: K. Malsawmsanga · Off: U. Singh
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Goa · On: H. Singh · Off: P. Gaonkar
  25. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Regar-TadAZ · On: A. Melikmurodov · Off: J. Feumba
  26. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Goa win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  27. 81′We said Goa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  28. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Regar-TadAZ · On: O. Panzhiev · Off: S. Makhamadiev
  29. 85′We said Goa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–89–3
  30. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Goa 1–1 Regar-TadAZ
  31. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Goa win: 54% at kick-off, 8% now
  32. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Goa win 8%)
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Regar-TadAZ · On: F. Davlatov · Off: M. Assomo
  34. 86′A goal for Regar-TadAZ on 85′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–90–3
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Goa · On: N. Tamang · Off: M. Nemil
  36. 90′We said Goa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  37. 90′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  38. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Goa 1–2 Regar-TadAZ
  39. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Goa win: 54% at kick-off, under 1% now
  40. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Regar-TadAZ win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  41. 91′Regar-TadAZ score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  42. 95′1–2 at the end. Our 54% on Goa misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  43. FTFULL TIME Goa 1–2 Regar-TadAZ
  44. FTGoa 1–2 Regar-TadAZ · Goa win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Goa 54%, draw 29%, Regar-TadAZ 16%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Goa v Regar-TadAZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Goa win54%
Draw29%
Regar-TadAZ win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:25

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Line-ups

Goa

Regar-TadAZ

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goa

Regar-TadAZ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Indian Super League

Last match: 10 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Goa

Formation not confirmed

45 B. Jackson

48 K. Singh

3 S. Jhingan

15 A. Zalaya

14 A. Sangwan

21 U. Singh

22 P. Gaonkar

5 A. Vallejo

44 M. Nemil

9 Chiki

7 M. J. Ortiz

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · L. Sharma

33 · L. Rymmei

35 · R. Kharbudon

47 · R. Ved

29 · N. Tamang

25 · S. Tariang

41 · S. Carvalho

23 · H. Patre

8 · H. Singh

46 · V. Fernandes

40 · H. Vaiphei

77 · K. Malsawmsanga

Regar-TadAZ

Formation not confirmed

38 T. Severin

29 F. Ndongo

4 B. Kalandarov

99 M. Mbollo

44 J. Feumba

27 D. Imomnazarov

30 M. Assomo

6 E. Kingue

8 A. Nozimov

10 S. Makhamadiev

13 N. Babajanov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Makhmudzoda

2 · A. Melikmurodov

12 · P. Arthur

74 · S. Giyosov

20 · O. Panzhiev

18 · A. Sharipov

11 · F. Davlatov

7 · A. Khaitov

9 · A. Safarov

21 · D. Ganiev

Our number · goa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
54% The market36%
Us54%
Market36%

We make Goa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Goa v Regar-TadAZ1.34 – 0.60
The market · Goa win36% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Goa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Goa win54%36%+18
Draw29%27%+2
Regar-TadAZ win16%37%−21
Over 2.5 goals31%52%−21
Both teams to score34%57%−23
Over 1.5 goals58%74%−16
Over 3.5 goals13%31%−18
Goa or draw84%63%+21
Goa clean sheet55%––
Regar-TadAZ clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.9%
0123450 14.8 8.3 2.6 1 18.9 11.9 3.5 2 12.9 7.7 2.3 3 5.7 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Goa down, Regar-TadAZ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 12 Aug

GOA

No matches in our record yet.

REGAR-TADAZ

W3–0