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Model 1.2

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Goa v Al Qadsia

Goa
1–2Full time
Al Qadsia

AFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
Goa 1–2 Al Qadsia AL QADSIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Qadsia win42%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.513
The market’s Brier score0.286

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Qadsia win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Qadsia was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 29–30–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Goa v Al Qadsia
  4. 9′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Goa 0–1 Al Qadsia
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 11′Al Qadsia ahead on 10′ through H. Khabba. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–72
  9. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' K. Ebrahim · Al Qadsia
  10. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Goa 1–1 Al Qadsia
  11. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 22′Chiki scores for Goa on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–34–38
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Goa 1–2 Al Qadsia
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
  15. 28′GOAL DISALLOWED · 28' Al Qadsia
  16. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
  17. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al Qadsia win 37%)
  18. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Goa 1–1 Al Qadsia
  20. 46′HALF-TIME Goa 1–1 Al Qadsia
  21. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' C. Gbo · Al Qadsia
  22. 48′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–2 · 5–19–77
  23. 48′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–19–77
  24. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Goa 1–2 Al Qadsia
  25. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 77% now
  26. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Al Qadsia win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 46%)
  27. 50′49′: H. Khabba on the scoresheet for Al Qadsia, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–18–77
  28. 58′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  29. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' J. Al Mutar · Al Qadsia
  30. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Goa · On: H. Singh · Off: H. Patre
  31. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al Qadsia · On: N. Al Rawahi · Off: Abdalla Ahmed
  32. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Qadsia · On: Dahman · Off: B. Al Mutawa Corrected
  34. 71′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
  35. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Qadsia · On: A. Al Shallal · Off: H. Khabba
  36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Goa · On: M. J. Ortiz · Off: K. Malsawmsanga
  37. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' K. Al Fadhli · Al Qadsia
  38. 79′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  39. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Al Qadsia win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  40. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' A. Zalaya · Goa
  41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Goa · On: S. Carvalho · Off: R. Kharbudon
  42. 85′We published Al Qadsia at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  43. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Qadsia · On: E. Al Rashedi · Off: A. Lkhdar
  44. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Goa · On: H. Vaiphei · Off: Franchu
  45. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Qadsia · On: A. A. Wadi Enizi A. · Off: J. Al Mutar
  46. 94′Full time, 1–2. We called Al Qadsia at 42% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  47. FTFULL TIME Goa 1–2 Al Qadsia
  48. FTGoa 1–2 Al Qadsia · Al Qadsia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Qadsia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Goa 29%, draw 29%, Al Qadsia 42%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Goa v Al QadsiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Goa win29%
Draw29%
Al Qadsia win42%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goa

Al Qadsia

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al qadsia winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
42% The market56%
Us42%
Market56%

We make Al Qadsia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Goa v Al Qadsia0.99 – 1.24
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 OctW1 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Al Qadsia win56% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:22
Our probability · Al Qadsia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Goa win29%20%+9
Draw29%24%+5
Al Qadsia win42%56%−14
Over 2.5 goals39%54%−15
Both teams to score45%53%−8
Over 1.5 goals66%76%−10
Over 3.5 goals19%33%−14
Goa or draw58%44%+14
Goa clean sheet29%––
Al Qadsia clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%
0123450 11.2 12.9 8.3 3.4 1 10.2 13.6 8.2 3.4 2 5.3 6.5 4.1 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Goa down, Al Qadsia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct

GOA

LW1–2 · 2–1

AL QADSIA

WW3–0 · 1–0