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Model 1.2

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Fortis v Regar-TadAZ

Fortis
3–1Full time
Regar-TadAZ

AFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02
Fortis 3–1 Regar-TadAZ REGAR-TADAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Regar-TadAZ win41%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.829
The market’s Brier score1.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Regar-TadAZ win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Regar-TadAZ 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 26–34–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fortis v Regar-TadAZ
  4. 11′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Fortis 0–1 Regar-TadAZ
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Regar-TadAZ win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
  7. 13′12′: S. Makhamadiev on the scoresheet for Regar-TadAZ, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  8. 17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Regar-TadAZ
  9. 19′Regar-TadAZ are down to ten from 17′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  10. 22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Regar-TadAZ · On: S. Makhmudzoda · Off: J. Feumba
  11. 31′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
  12. 45′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Regar-TadAZ · On: O. Panzhiev · Off: M. Assomo
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Fortis 0–1 Regar-TadAZ
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fortis · On: R. Tudu · Off: M. Hossain Corrected
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Regar-TadAZ · On: A. Khaitov · Off: N. Babajanov
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Regar-TadAZ · On: F. Davlatov · Off: M. Mbollo
  18. 49′HALF-TIME Fortis 0–1 Regar-TadAZ
  19. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Regar-TadAZ win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  20. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 47' M. Mithu Chowdhury · Fortis
  21. 63′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  22. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fortis · On: S. Itofusa · Off: Y. Shimomura
  23. 66′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 14–66–20
  24. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Fortis 1–1 Regar-TadAZ
  25. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Regar-TadAZ win: 41% at kick-off, 20% now
  26. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Regar-TadAZ win 86%)
  27. 67′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 14–67–19
  28. 69′Fortis level it on 67′ through R. Tudu. 1–1. 1–1 · 13–69–18
  29. 70′We said Regar-TadAZ at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 83–16–2
  30. 70′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–16–2
  31. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Fortis 2–1 Regar-TadAZ
  32. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Regar-TadAZ win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
  33. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Fortis win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 70%)
  34. 71′S. Kawasaki scores for Fortis on 71′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  35. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Regar-TadAZ win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
  36. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' A. Khaitov · Regar-TadAZ
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Regar-TadAZ · On: D. Ganiev · Off: S. Makhamadiev
  38. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Fortis 3–1 Regar-TadAZ
  40. 89′89′: S. Itofusa on the scoresheet for Fortis, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 89′88′: S. Itofusa on the scoresheet for Fortis, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' S. Itofusa · Fortis
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Fortis · On: S. Tudu · Off: M. Ibrahim
  44. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Fortis · On: S. Rony · Off: N. Akada
  45. 95′3–1 at the end. Our 41% on Regar-TadAZ misses, and the record keeps it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  46. FTFULL TIME Fortis 3–1 Regar-TadAZ
  47. FTFortis 3–1 Regar-TadAZ · Regar-TadAZ win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Regar-TadAZ are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortis 26%, draw 34%, Regar-TadAZ 41%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Fortis v Regar-TadAZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fortis win26%
Draw34%
Regar-TadAZ win41%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:25

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortis

Regar-TadAZ

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · regar-tadaz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
41% The market79%
Us41%
Market79%

We make Regar-TadAZ a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 38 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fortis v Regar-TadAZ0.75 – 1.01
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L1
The market · Regar-TadAZ win79% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70%80%90% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 14:19
Our probability · Regar-TadAZ win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fortis win26%7%+19
Draw34%14%+20
Regar-TadAZ win41%79%−38
Over 2.5 goals26%59%−33
Both teams to score34%38%−4
Over 1.5 goals53%79%−26
Over 3.5 goals10%38%−28
Fortis or draw59%21%+38
Fortis clean sheet36%––
Regar-TadAZ clean sheet47%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.6%
0123450 17.6 17.0 8.8 3.0 1 12.4 13.4 6.6 2.2 2 4.8 4.9 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fortis down, Regar-TadAZ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

FORTIS

WLL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

REGAR-TADAZ

WWL3–0 · 2–1 · 0–1