Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › AFC Challenge League › Fortis v Goa

Back

Fortis v Goa

Fortis
1–2Full time
Goa

AFC Challenge League · TUE 20 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:01
Fortis 1–2 Goa GOA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Goa win57%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.282
The market’s Brier score0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goa win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Goa was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 17–26–57
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fortis v Goa
  4. 5′We published Goa at 57%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 5–12–82
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Fortis 0–1 Goa
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 6′6′: M. J. Ortiz on the scoresheet for Goa, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–83
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Fortis 0–1 Goa
  10. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Goa · On: Franchu · Off: H. Patre
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Goa · On: K. Malsawmsanga · Off: M. J. Ortiz
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fortis · On: N. Akada · Off: M. Hossen
  13. 48′HALF-TIME Fortis 0–1 Goa
  14. 53′We published Goa at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  15. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Goa · On: H. Singh · Off: P. Gaonkar
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fortis · On: R. Tudu · Off: M. Ibrahim
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fortis · On: M. Alam · Off: M. Hossain
  19. 73′We published Goa at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  20. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Fortis · On: A. Fahad · Off: A. Bista
  21. 77′We said Goa at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 8–73–19
  22. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Fortis 1–1 Goa
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 19% now
  24. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Goa win 91%)
  25. 79′Fortis level it on 78′ through R. Tudu. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–76–16
  26. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 16% now
  27. 81′We said Goa at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 6–80–14
  28. 84′We published Goa at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–4–95
  29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Fortis 1–2 Goa
  30. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
  31. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Goa win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 86%)
  32. 85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  33. 86′Chiki scores for Goa on 85′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  34. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Goa win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Goa · On: S. Carvalho · Off: M. Nemil
  36. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' E. Jallow · Fortis
  37. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Goa · On: K. Singh · Off: R. Kharbudon
  38. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' R. Kharbudon · Goa
  39. 97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Fortis
  40. 98′A red card for Fortis on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  41. 98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' E. Jallow · Fortis
  42. FTFULL TIME Fortis 1–2 Goa
  43. FTFortis 1–2 Goa · Goa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortis 17%, draw 26%, Goa 57%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Fortis v GoaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Fortis win17%
Draw26%
Goa win57%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:25

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Line-ups

Fortis

Goa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortis

Goa

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fortis

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Perera

2 M. Hossain

44 A. Tamang

79 S. Kawasaki

80 Y. Shimomura

21 M. Hossen

8 A. Bista

4 E. Jallow

35 M. Ibrahim

10 P. Babou

9 S. Chukwude

Coach · Parvez Kaisar Masud

Substitutes

25 · M. Mehedi Islam Rabbani

30 · M. Atick

24 · S. Sangram

5 · M. Rahman

23 · M. Alam

3 · M. Mithu Chowdhury

13 · A. Fahad

73 · N. Akada

6 · S. Tudu

20 · R. Tudu

11 · S. Rony

38 · S. Itofusa

Goa

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Sharma

21 U. Singh

3 S. Jhingan

15 A. Zalaya

35 R. Kharbudon

5 A. Vallejo

22 P. Gaonkar

44 M. Nemil

23 H. Patre

7 M. J. Ortiz

9 Chiki

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · L. Rymmei

47 · R. Ved

29 · N. Tamang

14 · A. Sangwan

25 · S. Tariang

41 · S. Carvalho

48 · K. Singh

8 · H. Singh

46 · V. Fernandes

28 · Franchu

40 · H. Vaiphei

77 · K. Malsawmsanga

Our number · goa winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
57% The market50%
Us57%
Market50%

We make Goa a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fortis v Goa0.77 – 1.61
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1
The market · Goa win50% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 14:13
Our probability · Goa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fortis win17%23%−6
Draw26%26%0
Goa win57%50%+7
Over 2.5 goals42%48%−6
Both teams to score43%51%−8
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%28%−6
Fortis or draw43%50%−7
Fortis clean sheet20%––
Goa clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%
0123450 9.6 14.5 12.0 6.4 2.6 1 6.8 11.9 9.2 4.9 2 2.8 4.4 3.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fortis down, Goa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

FORTIS

WL1–0 · 0–3

GOA

L1–2