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Model 1.2

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Al Qadsia v Fortis

Al Qadsia
3–0Full time
Fortis

AFC Challenge League · SAT 17 OCT · Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02
Al Qadsia 3–0 Fortis AL QADSIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Qadsia win78%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.080
The market’s Brier score0.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Qadsia win at 78%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Al Qadsia v Fortis
  3. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Qadsia was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 77–16–6
  4. 19′We published Al Qadsia at 78%. Our model now makes it 93%. 1–0 · 93–6–1
  5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Al Qadsia 1–0 Fortis
  6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Al Qadsia win: 78% at kick-off, 93% now
  7. 20′20′: H. Khabba on the scoresheet for Al Qadsia, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–1
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 92–6–1
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Al Qadsia 1–0 Fortis
  10. 48′HALF-TIME Al Qadsia 1–0 Fortis
  11. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' E. Jallow · Fortis
  12. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fortis · On: S. Itofusa · Off: M. Ibrahim
  13. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Qadsia · On: B. Jamal · Off: M. Al Dhafiri
  14. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Qadsia · On: A. Lkhdar · Off: E. Al Rashedi
  15. 70′We published Al Qadsia at 78%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Al Qadsia 2–0 Fortis
  17. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Al Qadsia win: 78% at kick-off, over 99% now
  18. 73′Al Qadsia ahead on 71′ through A. Lkhdar. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Qadsia · On: B. Al Mutawa · Off: N. Al Rawahi
  20. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fortis · On: M. Hossen · Off: N. Akada
  21. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al Qadsia · On: Abdalla Ahmed · Off: J. Al Mutar
  22. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al Qadsia · On: T. Al Fadhel · Off: K. Al Fadhli
  23. 89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al Qadsia 3–0 Fortis
  25. 91′Abdalla Ahmed scores for Al Qadsia on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 94′Full time, 3–0. We called Al Qadsia at 78% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Fortis · On: M. Alam · Off: M. Hossain
  28. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Fortis · On: R. Tudu · Off: S. Chukwude Corrected
  29. FTFULL TIME Al Qadsia 3–0 Fortis
  30. FTAl Qadsia 3–0 Fortis · Al Qadsia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Qadsia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Qadsia 78%, draw 16%, Fortis 6%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Al Qadsia v FortisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Qadsia win78%
Draw16%
Fortis win6%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueMohammed Al Hamad Stadium

Line-ups

Al Qadsia

Fortis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Qadsia

Fortis

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Qadsia

Formation not confirmed

33 H. Youssef

4 R. Al Dosary

36 K. Ebrahim

6 K. Al Fadhli

3 M. Al Dhafiri

21 Dahman

5 C. Gbo

28 J. Al Mutar

11 E. Al Rashedi

23 H. Khabba

7 N. Al Rawahi

Coach · Abdullah Al Haqqan

Substitutes

22 · S. Al Jenaie

78 · S. Al-Rais

31 · T. Al Fadhel

13 · B. Jamal

14 · A. A. Wadi Enizi A.

9 · K. Al Kharqawi

8 · Abdalla Ahmed

17 · B. Al Mutawa

10 · A. Shehab

19 · A. Boodai

77 · A. Lkhdar

29 · A. Al Shallal

Fortis

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Perera

2 M. Hossain

44 A. Tamang

79 S. Kawasaki

80 Y. Shimomura

73 N. Akada

8 A. Bista

4 E. Jallow

35 M. Ibrahim

10 P. Babou

9 S. Chukwude

Coach · Parvez Kaisar Masud

Substitutes

25 · M. Mehedi Islam Rabbani

30 · M. Atick

24 · S. Sangram

5 · M. Rahman

23 · M. Alam

3 · M. Mithu Chowdhury

13 · A. Fahad

21 · M. Hossen

6 · S. Tudu

20 · R. Tudu

11 · S. Rony

38 · S. Itofusa

Our number · al qadsia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
78% The market78%
Us78%
Market78%

We make Al Qadsia a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Qadsia v Fortis2.26 – 0.49
The market · Al Qadsia win78% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 18:02
Our probability · Al Qadsia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 78% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Qadsia win78%78%0
Draw16%14%+2
Fortis win6%8%−2
Over 2.5 goals52%67%−15
Both teams to score35%49%−14
Over 1.5 goals76%86%−10
Over 3.5 goals30%47%−17
Al Qadsia or draw94%92%+2
Al Qadsia clean sheet61%––
Fortis clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.4%
0123450 6.6 2.9 1 14.3 7.3 2 16.4 8.0 3 12.3 6.0 4 7.0 3.4 5 3.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Qadsia down, Fortis across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

AL QADSIA

No matches in our record yet.

FORTIS

W1–0