Al Nejmeh v Istiqlol prediction · AFC Challenge League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol ISTIQLOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Istiqlol win~~45%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Istiqlol win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Istiqlol was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 26–29–45
1′KICK-OFF Al Nejmeh v Istiqlol
7′Much as we predicted: Istiqlol was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 26–30–44
19′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Al Nejmeh · On: A. Arda · Off: M. Haidar
21′Ibrahim scores for Al Nejmeh on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol · Ibrahim
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Istiqlol win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Al Nejmeh win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Istiqlol win 16%)
22′We said Istiqlol at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 59–25–16
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Istiqlol win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
28′We said Istiqlol at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 61–25–14
45′HALF-TIME Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol
46′SECOND HALF Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol
47′We said Istiqlol at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' A. Kneni · Al Nejmeh
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Istiqlol · On: R. Soirov · Off: O. Shchebetun
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Istiqlol win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
64′We said Istiqlol at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Nejmeh · On: M. Kassas · Off: K. Quejada
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Nejmeh · On: H. Kourani · Off: A. Fadel
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Istiqlol · On: S. Samiev · Off: A. Shukurov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Istiqlol · On: M. Rakhimov · Off: T. Islomov
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' S. Samiev · Istiqlol
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. Dzhalilov · Istiqlol
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Al Nejmeh · On: A. Sharqawi · Off: Ibrahim
FTFULL TIME Al Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol
FTAl Nejmeh 1–0 Istiqlol · Istiqlol win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Istiqlol are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Nejmeh 27%, draw 29%, Istiqlol 45%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Nejmeh v IstiqlolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Nejmeh win27%

Draw29%

Istiqlol win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Line-ups

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

5Days since last match32

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 15 Sept · Vysshaya Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Nejmeh

Formation not confirmed

95 M. Matar

6 H. Al Zein

5 K. Khamis

18 K. El Zein

28 A. Kneni

21 A. Fadel

36 M. Salifu

10 M. Haidar

17 R. Michael

49 Ibrahim

9 K. Quejada

Coach · Lassad Dridi

Substitutes

90 · A. Halal

2 · A. Ismail

4 · A. Sharqawi

20 · H. Kourani

7 · A. Al Haj

19 · H. Jaafar

71 · H. Siblini

26 · O. Ghantous

11 · M. Kassas

31 · L. Jarjou

70 · A. Sene

66 · A. Arda

Istiqlol

Formation not confirmed

78 D. Kavlinov

66 V. Khanonov

88 S. Mabatshoev

26 F. Ikic

23 A. Karomatullozoda

3 T. Islomov

10 A. Dzhalilov

41 A. Shukurov

6 A. Dzhuraboev

17 E. Pandzhshanbe

8 O. Shchebetun

Coach · Vitaliy Levchenko

Substitutes

99 · M. Khasanov

22 · M. Safaralii

50 · J. Tomasevic

77 · M. Tikhonov

44 · M. Khasanbekov

11 · M. Rakhimov

14 · M. Odilzoda

63 · S. Samiev

9 · R. Soirov

20 · D. Sharipov

Our number · istiqlol winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 00:28 · locked at kick-off

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Istiqlol a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Nejmeh v Istiqlol~~0.96 – 1.33

~~The market · Istiqlol win~~41% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Istiqlol win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Nejmeh win	27%	31%	−4
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Istiqlol win	45%	41%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Al Nejmeh or draw	55%	59%	−4
Al Nejmeh clean sheet	27%	–	–
Istiqlol clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.6 13.1 9.0 4.0 1 9.3 13.4 8.6 3.8 2 4.7 6.2 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nejmeh down, Istiqlol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 408,654 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 16 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Al Nejmeh play in Premier League (Lebanon), Istiqlol in Vysshaya Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Al Nejmeh are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Al Nejmeh, 1.33 for Istiqlol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season

AL NEJMEH

No matches in our record yet.

ISTIQLOL

No matches in our record yet.

Al Nejmeh v Istiqlol

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

Rest & schedule

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

Match statistics

Line-ups

Al Nejmeh

Istiqlol

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · AFC Challenge League this season