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Al Ittihad v Paro
Al IttihadParoAFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ittihad win at 70%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Al Ittihad was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–13
- 1′KICK-OFF Al Ittihad v Paro
- 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' N. Wangdi · Paro
- 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' M. Rihanieh · Al Ittihad
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
- 40′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–26–16
- 45′HALF-TIME Al Ittihad 0–0 Paro
- 46′SECOND HALF Al Ittihad 0–0 Paro
- 49′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–16
- 55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 56–28–16
- 56′56′: A. Firmino on the scoresheet for Al Ittihad. 0–0 · 50–35–15
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
- 57′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–15
- 57′We published Al Ittihad at 70%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Paro · On: B. Ceesay · Off: K. Wangchuk
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Al Ittihad 1–0 Paro · A. Firmino (assist S. Al Shakhir)
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Al Ittihad · On: M. Al Shalat · Off: S. Mane
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Paro · On: M. Jallow · Off: R. Ichimura
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Ahmed · Off: H. Dahhan
- 76′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–59–11
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Al Ittihad 1–1 Paro
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
- 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Al Ittihad win 89%)
- 77′76′: H. Al Kurdi puts it into the Al Ittihad net, and it is 1–1. 1–1 · 28–61–11
- 78′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–63–10
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Hasan · Off: A. Al Ahmed
- 80′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–67–9
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
- 84′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–78–6
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Paro · On: F. A. Oluwaseun · Off: Y. Mishima
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Paro · On: P. Wangchuk · Off: T. Namgyel
- 85′We said Al Ittihad at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–6
- 86′Al Ittihad ahead on 86′ through M. Rihanieh. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' F. A. Oluwaseun · Paro
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al Ittihad 2–1 Paro · M. Rihanieh (assist A. Al Dahan)
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Al Ittihad win: 70% at kick-off, 95% now
- 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Al Ittihad win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 81%)
- 87′We published Al Ittihad at 70%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' T. Ndour · Paro
- FTFULL TIME Al Ittihad 2–1 Paro
- FTAl Ittihad 2–1 Paro · Al Ittihad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Al Ittihad are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Al Ittihad 70%, draw 16%, Paro 13%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Al Ittihad win70%Paro win13%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueChanglimithang Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Al IttihadMINParoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al Ittihad
Paro
Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League
Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Al Ittihad a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 59%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | −3 |
| Paro win | 13% | 14% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 62% | +13 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 83% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 42% | +13 |
| Al Ittihad or draw | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Al Ittihad clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Paro clean sheet | 6% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2023No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug
AL ITTIHAD
PARO