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Al Ittihad v Ahal

Al Ittihad
5–1Full time
Ahal

AFC Challenge League · TUE 20 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 18:31
Al Ittihad 5–1 Ahal AL ITTIHAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ittihad win46%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.436
The market’s Brier score0.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ittihad win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ittihad 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Ittihad v Ahal
  4. 34′We said Al Ittihad at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  5. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Al Ittihad 1–0 Ahal
  6. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Al Ittihad win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 35′A. Ashkar scores for Al Ittihad on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  8. 36′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Al Ittihad 1–0 Ahal
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Al Ittihad 1–0 Ahal
  11. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Al Shami · Al Ittihad
  12. 51′We said Al Ittihad at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  13. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al Ittihad 2–0 Ahal
  14. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Al Ittihad win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
  15. 52′51′: A. Firmino on the scoresheet for Al Ittihad, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  16. 57′We said Al Ittihad at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  17. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ahal · On: E. Annayev · Off: S. Mirzoyev
  18. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ahal · On: B. Gurbanberdiyew · Off: A. Rahmanow
  19. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Al Ittihad 3–0 Ahal
  20. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Al Ittihad win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
  21. 62′Al Ittihad ahead on 62′ through A. Firmino. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  22. 65′We said Al Ittihad at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ahal · On: R. Priyev · Off: Y. Annamyradov
  24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Ittihad · On: R. Belo · Off: H. Dahhan Corrected
  25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Ahmed · Off: A. Firmino
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Ittihad · On: M. Al Shalat · Off: A. Al Shami
  27. 80′A. Al Hasan scores for Al Ittihad on 80′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Ittihad 4–0 Ahal · A. Al Hasan
  29. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Jordan · Al Ittihad
  31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ahal · On: Y. Garajayev · Off: H. Bashimov
  32. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Y. Garajayev · Ahal
  33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Ittihad · On: R. Belo · Off: A. Al Dahan
  34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Hussain · Off: A. Ashkar
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ahal · On: B. Mamiyew · Off: A. Jumadurdyyew
  36. 87′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al Ittihad 4–1 Ahal
  38. 88′88′: E. Annayev on the scoresheet for Ahal, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′5–1 at the end. Our 46% on Al Ittihad comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Al Ittihad 5–1 Ahal
  42. 91′Al Ittihad ahead on 89′ through A. Al Hasan. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  43. FTFULL TIME Al Ittihad 5–1 Ahal
  44. FTAl Ittihad 5–1 Ahal · Al Ittihad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ittihad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ittihad 46%, draw 24%, Ahal 30%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Al Ittihad v AhalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al Ittihad win46%
Draw24%
Ahal win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChanglimithang Stadium

Line-ups

Al Ittihad

Ahal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ittihad

Ahal

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Ittihad

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Al Shakhir

2 Z. Hanan

3 Jordan

5 A. Al Shami

21 H. Al Kurdi

66 S. Mane

14 A. Ashkar

10 M. Rihanieh

7 H. Dahhan

11 A. Al Dahan

98 A. Firmino

Coach · Valeriu Tita

Substitutes

31 · K. A. Othman

22 · A. Abdelraheem

4 · I. Al Zain

25 · A. M. Ahmad

8 · R. Belo

32 · H. Haj Deebo

15 · M. Al Shalat

16 · M. Darwish

9 · A. Al Ahmed

19 · A. Al Hussain

18 · A. Al Hasan

Ahal

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Ovezov

97 S. Bashimov

2 D. Berdiyev

22 A. Rahmanow

5 H. Bashimov

8 Y. Govshudov

21 O. Orazov

19 Y. Annamyradov

12 A. Jumadurdyyew

11 S. Mirzoyev

10 M. Berenov

Coach · Eziz Annamuhammedov

Substitutes

25 · W. Mammayew

95 · R. Priyev

30 · B. Orazmuhammedov

18 · Y. Garajayev

77 · A. Gurbani

9 · P. Sultanov

7 · B. Mamiyew

33 · P. Bekmamedov

6 · N. Tovakelov

13 · B. Gurbanberdiyew

27 · N. Saryyev

17 · E. Annayev

Our number · al ittihad winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
46% The market53%
Us46%
Market53%

We make Al Ittihad a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Ittihad v Ahal1.77 – 1.39
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 AugW1 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Al Ittihad win53% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Al Ittihad win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Ittihad win46%53%−7
Draw24%24%0
Ahal win30%22%+8
Over 2.5 goals61%56%+5
Both teams to score62%57%+5
Over 1.5 goals83%77%+6
Over 3.5 goals39%34%+5
Al Ittihad or draw70%78%−8
Al Ittihad clean sheet25%––
Ahal clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 4.6 5.6 4.1 1 7.2 10.8 7.3 3.3 2 6.7 9.2 6.4 3.0 3 3.9 5.4 3.8 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ittihad down, Ahal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

AL ITTIHAD

WL1–0 · 0–2

AHAL

D2–2