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Model 1.2

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Al Arabi v Wathba

Al Arabi
0–1Full time
Wathba

AFC Challenge League · SAT 17 OCT · Hisor Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Al Arabi 0–1 Wathba AL ARABI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Arabi win64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.251

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Arabi win at 64%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Arabi 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–25–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Arabi v Wathba
  4. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Al Arabi win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 33′A goal for Wathba on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–31–48
  6. 33′We said Al Arabi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–31–48
  7. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Al Arabi 0–1 Wathba
  8. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Al Arabi win: 64% at kick-off, 21% now
  9. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Wathba win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Al Arabi win 21%)
  10. 34′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 21–31–48
  11. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Al Arabi · On: H. Al Harbi · Off: K. Al Mershed
  12. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Wathba
  13. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 7' S. Shoufan · Wathba
  14. 38′We said Al Arabi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–31–50
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Al Arabi 0–1 Wathba
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Al Arabi 0–1 Wathba
  17. 48′We said Al Arabi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–30–55
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Al Arabi win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
  19. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: T. Al-Matroud · Off: A. Nasari
  20. 59′We said Al Arabi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–28–63
  21. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Wathba
  22. 71′We said Al Arabi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
  23. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Al Arabi win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
  24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Arabi · On: F. Al Dawood · Off: A. Khalaf
  25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wathba · On: M. Farawi · Off: I. Al Khalil
  26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wathba · On: E. Laszo · Off: S. Shoufan
  27. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wathba · On: A. Kullab · Off: M. Al Ghoul
  28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Arabi · On: B. Al Salama · Off: B. Al Mutairi
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Arabi · On: A. Al Doukhi · Off: Z. Qunbar
  30. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wathba · On: M. Horso Mwaku · Off: A. Barakat
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Wathba · On: M. Shofan · Off: K. Meshleb
  32. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Wathba
  33. FTFULL TIME Al Arabi 0–1 Wathba
  34. FTAl Arabi 0–1 Wathba · Al Arabi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Arabi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Arabi 64%, draw 25%, Wathba 11%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Al Arabi v WathbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Arabi win64%
Draw25%
Wathba win11%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Line-ups

Al Arabi

Wathba

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Arabi

Wathba

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Arabi

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Abdulghafoor

2 A. Al Awadi

5 J. Aboud

27 B. Souyad

21 A. Nasari

18 C. Markneh

14 K. Al Mershed

17 A. Khalaf

73 W. Ould Chikh

98 Z. Qunbar

7 A. Iwuala

Coach · Nasser Al Shatti

Substitutes

26 · A. Dashti

3 · Ammar Abdullah

16 · A. Al Rasool

10 · B. Al Salama

13 · Y. Al Khebizi

12 · H. Al Harbi

11 · T. Al Qaisi

19 · Y. Majed

89 · F. Al Dawood

9 · A. Al Doukhi

76 · T. Al-Matroud

Wathba

Formation not confirmed

95 K. Ibrahim

16 I. Al Khalil

25 Y. Al Hamawi

2 F. Atsama

6 K. Meshleb

20 Will

8 K. Hmeisha

5 S. Shoufan

24 M. Al Ghoul

19 A. Barakat

30 Francisco Politino

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Assi

98 · I. Haidar

27 · M. Farawi

99 · E. Laszo

14 · J. Al Bitar

40 · M. Horso Mwaku

7 · W. Al Rifaee

10 · A. Bota

23 · M. Mhanna

33 · A. Kullab

4 · M. Shofan

29 · N. Blaise

Our number · al arabi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
64% The market–
Us64%

We make Al Arabi a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Arabi v Wathba1.60 – 0.52

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 11:51
Our probability · Al Arabi win

Published at 61%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Arabi win64%––
Draw25%––
Wathba win11%––
Over 2.5 goals36%––
Both teams to score33%––
Over 1.5 goals63%––
Over 3.5 goals17%––
Al Arabi or draw89%––
Al Arabi clean sheet59%––
Wathba clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%
0123450 12.3 5.9 1 18.8 10.3 2.6 2 15.3 8.0 2.1 3 8.2 4.3 4 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Arabi down, Wathba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

AL ARABI

No matches in our record yet.

WATHBA

D1–1