Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › AFC Challenge League › Al Arabi v Al Nejmeh

Back

Al Arabi v Al Nejmeh

Al Arabi
1–3Full time
Al Nejmeh

AFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Hisor Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01
Al Arabi 1–3 Al Nejmeh AL ARABI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Arabi win57%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.076
The market’s Brier score0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Arabi win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Arabi 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Arabi v Al Nejmeh
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  5. 38′We said Al Arabi at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  6. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al Arabi 1–0 Al Nejmeh
  7. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 39′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 40′Al Arabi ahead on 39′ through W. Ould Chikh. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  10. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' B. Souyad · Al Arabi
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Al Arabi 1–1 Al Nejmeh
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: Z. Qunbar · Off: A. Al Doukhi
  13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: A. Iwuala · Off: A. Porusaniei
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Arabi · On: J. Aboud · Off: A. Al Shammari
  15. 47′We said Al Arabi at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–42–16
  16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Al Arabi 1–1 Al Nejmeh
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 42% now
  18. 50′M. Kassas scores for Al Nejmeh on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–40–16
  19. 50′HALF-TIME Al Arabi 1–1 Al Nejmeh
  20. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Al Arabi win 42%)
  21. 53′We said Al Arabi at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–46–15
  22. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  23. 57′We said Al Arabi at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–27–63
  24. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al Arabi 1–2 Al Nejmeh
  25. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 10% now
  26. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Al Nejmeh win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 49%)
  27. 58′We said Al Arabi at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–27–64
  28. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–27–64
  29. 59′58′: M. Haidar on the scoresheet for Al Nejmeh, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–26–65
  30. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Arabi win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  31. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' H. Jaafar · Al Nejmeh
  32. 70′We said Al Arabi at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
  33. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al Arabi · On: A. Al Awadi · Off: Ammar Abdullah
  34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al Arabi · On: C. Markneh · Off: B. Souyad
  35. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Nejmeh · On: L. Jarjou · Off: M. Haidar Corrected
  36. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Nejmeh · On: M. Salifu · Off: H. Kourani
  37. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' M. Salifu · Al Nejmeh
  38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al Nejmeh · On: O. Ghantous · Off: M. Kassas
  39. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Nejmeh · On: A. Sharqawi · Off: A. Kneni
  40. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  41. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Al Arabi 1–3 Al Nejmeh
  42. 93′Al Nejmeh ahead on 90′ through A. Fadel. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  43. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' H. Al Harbi · Al Arabi
  44. 94′1–3 at the end. Our 57% on Al Arabi misses, and the record keeps it. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  45. FTFULL TIME Al Arabi 1–3 Al Nejmeh
  46. FTAl Arabi 1–3 Al Nejmeh · Al Arabi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Arabi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Arabi 57%, draw 25%, Al Nejmeh 17%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Al Arabi v Al NejmehBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Arabi win57%
Draw25%
Al Nejmeh win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHisor Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Arabi

Al Nejmeh

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al arabi winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
57% The market38%
Us57%
Market38%

We make Al Arabi a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Arabi v Al Nejmeh1.64 – 0.78
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 OctW0 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L1
The market · Al Arabi win38% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 11:47
Our probability · Al Arabi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Arabi win57%38%+19
Draw25%29%−4
Al Nejmeh win17%34%−17
Over 2.5 goals44%46%−2
Both teams to score44%52%−8
Over 1.5 goals70%70%0
Over 3.5 goals23%26%−3
Al Arabi or draw83%66%+17
Al Arabi clean sheet46%––
Al Nejmeh clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%
0123450 9.3 6.6 2.7 1 14.2 11.8 4.5 2 11.9 9.3 3.7 3 6.5 5.1 4 2.7 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Arabi down, Al Nejmeh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsALN 1–2 ALA · ALA 0–0 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct

AL ARABI

LL0–1 · 0–2

AL NEJMEH

WL1–0 · 1–2