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Al Ansar v Al Ittihad

Al Ansar
2–0Full time
Al Ittihad

AFC Challenge League · SAT 17 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Al Ansar 2–0 Al Ittihad AL ANSAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ansar win60%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.243
The market’s Brier score0.639

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ansar win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Ansar was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Ansar v Al Ittihad
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Ansar win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 42′We said Al Ansar at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–33–19
  6. 45′We published Al Ansar at 60%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Al Ansar 1–0 Al Ittihad
  8. 46′Al Ansar ahead on 45′ through K. Bader. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  9. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Al Ansar 1–0 Al Ittihad · K. Bader (assist A. Khairdien)
  10. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Al Ansar win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Al Ansar 1–0 Al Ittihad
  12. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Al Ansar win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
  13. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' H. Houssam Eddine · Al Ansar
  14. 54′N. Matar scores for Al Ansar on 54′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  15. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Al Ansar 2–0 Al Ittihad · N. Matar
  16. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Al Ansar win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 55′We published Al Ansar at 60%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  18. 55′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  19. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Hasan · Off: S. Mane
  20. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Ittihad · On: M. Al Shalat · Off: M. Rihanieh
  21. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Ittihad · On: H. Dahhan · Off: A. Al Ahmed
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Ansar · On: M. Bou Saleh · Off: N. Matar
  23. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Ansar · On: M. Sabbah · Off: H. Houssam Eddine
  24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Ansar · On: M. Osman · Off: K. Bader
  25. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Ittihad · On: A. Al Hussain · Off: A. Firmino
  26. 81′We published Al Ansar at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Al Ansar win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  28. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Ittihad · On: H. Haj Deebo · Off: Z. Hanan
  29. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Ansar · On: M. El Dor · Off: M. Kassab
  30. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Ansar · On: M. Zein · Off: A. Khairdien
  31. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sisi · Al Ansar
  32. FTFULL TIME Al Ansar 2–0 Al Ittihad
  33. FTAl Ansar 2–0 Al Ittihad · Al Ansar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ansar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ansar 60%, draw 21%, Al Ittihad 19%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Ansar v Al IttihadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Ansar win60%
Draw21%
Al Ittihad win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChanglimithang Stadium

Line-ups

Al Ansar

Al Ittihad

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ansar

Al Ittihad

9Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Premier League (Lebanon)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Ansar

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Kanj

5 N. Nassar

33 N. Nangolo

35 R. Mednini

77 M. Kassab

12 A. Khairdien

31 H. Houssam Eddine

4 N. Matar

10 Sisi

7 K. Bader

9 E. Malick Tall

Coach · Youssef Al Jawhari

Substitutes

23 · I. Moqdad

2 · M. El Dor

6 · M. E. Aoun

25 · F. Kacem

11 · M. Osman

80 · H. El Mokdad

40 · A. Akuki

3 · K. Watfa

8 · M. Bou Saleh

30 · M. Sabbah

14 · M. Zein

22 · M. Al Massri

Al Ittihad

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Al Shakhir

2 Z. Hanan

3 Jordan

5 A. Al Shami

25 A. M. Ahmad

66 S. Mane

14 A. Ashkar

98 A. Firmino

10 M. Rihanieh

11 A. Al Dahan

9 A. Al Ahmed

Coach · Valeriu Tita

Substitutes

31 · K. A. Othman

22 · A. Abdelraheem

4 · I. Al Zain

7 · H. Dahhan

8 · R. Belo

32 · H. Haj Deebo

15 · M. Al Shalat

16 · M. Darwish

21 · H. Al Kurdi

19 · A. Al Hussain

18 · A. Al Hasan

Our number · al ansar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
60% The market35%
Us60%
Market35%

We make Al Ansar a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Ansar v Al Ittihad2.07 – 1.08
The market · Al Ansar win35% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 15:16
Our probability · Al Ansar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Ansar win60%35%+25
Draw21%29%−8
Al Ittihad win19%36%−17
Over 2.5 goals61%42%+19
Both teams to score58%50%+8
Over 1.5 goals83%67%+16
Over 3.5 goals39%23%+16
Al Ansar or draw81%64%+17
Al Ansar clean sheet34%––
Al Ittihad clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.6 4.3 2.5 1 8.6 9.9 5.2 2 9.2 9.9 5.4 3 6.3 6.8 3.7 4 3.3 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ansar down, Al Ittihad across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

AL ANSAR

No matches in our record yet.

AL ITTIHAD

W1–0