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Model 1.2

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Ahal v Paro

Ahal
2–2Full time
Paro

AFC Challenge League · SAT 17 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Ahal 2–2 Paro AHAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ahal win61%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.040
The market’s Brier score0.837

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ahal win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ahal 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ahal v Paro
  4. 28′27′: A. Jumadurdyyew on the scoresheet for Ahal, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  5. 28′We said Ahal at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  6. 28′26′: A. Jumadurdyyew on the scoresheet for Ahal, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  7. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ahal 1–0 Paro · A. Jumadurdyyew (assist S. Mirzoyev)
  8. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ahal win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  10. 39′Ahal ahead on 38′ through Y. Govshudov. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  11. 39′We said Ahal at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ahal 2–0 Paro · Y. Govshudov
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ahal win: 61% at kick-off, 95% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Ahal 2–0 Paro
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paro · On: F. A. Oluwaseun · Off: R. Sagna
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paro · On: T. Ndour · Off: M. Ullah
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Ahal 2–0 Paro
  18. 55′S. Jawara scores for Paro on 54′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–3
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ahal 2–1 Paro · S. Jawara
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ahal win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ahal · On: R. Priyev · Off: D. Berdiyev
  22. 67′We said Ahal at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  23. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Paro · On: B. Touray · Off: Y. Mishima
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Paro · On: B. Ceesay · Off: T. Kazi
  25. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' H. Bashimov · Ahal
  26. 79′We said Ahal at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ahal · On: Y. Annamyradov · Off: Y. Govshudov
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Ahal win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
  29. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ahal · On: P. Sultanov · Off: D. Hojamammedov
  30. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Paro · On: M. Jallow · Off: R. Ichimura
  31. 91′90′: M. Jallow on the scoresheet for Paro, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 6–91–3
  32. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Ahal · On: E. Annayev · Off: M. Berenov
  33. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Ahal · On: N. Tovakelov · Off: S. Mirzoyev
  34. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ahal 2–2 Paro · M. Jallow
  35. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Ahal win: 61% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Ahal win 6%)
  37. 92′We said Ahal at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–93–2
  38. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–93–2
  39. 93′We said Ahal at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–95–2
  40. FTFULL TIME Ahal 2–2 Paro
  41. FTAhal 2–2 Paro · Ahal win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ahal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ahal 61%, draw 21%, Paro 18%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Ahal v ParoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ahal win61%
Draw21%
Paro win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChanglimithang Stadium

Line-ups

Ahal

Paro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ahal

Paro

10Days since last match9

Last match: 7 Oct · Ýokary Liga

Last match: 8 Oct · Premier League (Bhutan)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ahal

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Ovezov

97 S. Bashimov

22 A. Rahmanow

2 D. Berdiyev

5 H. Bashimov

98 D. Hojamammedov

8 Y. Govshudov

12 A. Jumadurdyyew

21 O. Orazov

10 M. Berenov

11 S. Mirzoyev

Coach · Eziz Annamuhammedov

Substitutes

25 · W. Mammayew

95 · R. Priyev

18 · Y. Garajayev

77 · A. Gurbani

9 · P. Sultanov

7 · B. Mamiyew

33 · P. Bekmamedov

6 · N. Tovakelov

13 · B. Gurbanberdiyew

27 · N. Saryyev

17 · E. Annayev

19 · Y. Annamyradov

Paro

Formation not confirmed

44 L. Saidi

40 T. Kazi

33 M. Ullah

2 S. Jawara

15 N. Wangdi

5 T. Hanazato

22 Y. Mishima

19 R. Ichimura

97 R. Sagna

7 A. Baldeh

25 E. Asante

Coach · Puspalal Sharma

Substitutes

1 · G. Zangpo

21 · H. Roy

56 · T. Ndour

18 · P. Wangchuk

16 · T. Namgyel

80 · B. Touray

55 · K. Acquah

77 · B. Ceesay

29 · S. Sadick

99 · M. Jallow

11 · K. Wangchuk

17 · F. A. Oluwaseun

Our number · ahal winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
61% The market38%
Us61%
Market38%

We make Ahal a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 23 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ahal v Paro2.17 – 1.11
The market · Ahal win38% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 12:29
Our probability · Ahal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ahal win61%38%+23
Draw21%25%−4
Paro win18%37%−19
Over 2.5 goals64%60%+4
Both teams to score60%63%−3
Over 1.5 goals84%80%+4
Over 3.5 goals42%39%+3
Ahal or draw82%63%+19
Ahal clean sheet33%––
Paro clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.8%
0123450 4.0 3.9 2.3 1 7.8 9.3 5.0 2 8.8 9.8 5.5 2.0 3 6.4 7.1 4.0 4 3.5 3.9 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ahal down, Paro across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 11 Aug

AHAL

No matches in our record yet.

PARO

W2–0