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Model 1.2

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Ahal v Al Ansar

Ahal
2–1Full time
Al Ansar

AFC Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Changlimithang Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31
Ahal 2–1 Al Ansar AL ANSAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ansar win55%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.974
The market’s Brier score1.079

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ansar win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Ansar was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–24–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ahal v Al Ansar
  4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Al Ansar win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 43′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 20–36–43
  6. 45′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 57–27–15
  7. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Ahal 1–0 Al Ansar
  8. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al Ansar win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ahal win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Al Ansar win 43%)
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Ahal 1–0 Al Ansar
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Ahal 1–0 Al Ansar
  12. 46′45′: B. Mamiyew on the scoresheet for Ahal, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 58–27–15
  13. 48′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
  14. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Ansar · On: M. Zein · Off: N. Matar
  15. 59′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
  16. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ahal · On: A. Jumadurdyyew · Off: A. Rahmanow
  17. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ahal · On: M. Berenov · Off: B. Mamiyew
  18. 64′M. Osman scores for Al Ansar on 64′. 1–0 · 68–25–7
  19. 64′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 16–52–32
  20. 64′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 16–52–32
  21. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ahal 1–1 Al Ansar · M. Osman
  22. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Al Ansar win: 55% at kick-off, 32% now
  23. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Ahal win 68%)
  24. 65′Al Ansar level it on 63′ through M. Osman. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–53–31
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Ansar · On: M. Sabbah · Off: M. Osman
  26. 68′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 15–56–29
  27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Ansar · On: H. Houssam Eddine · Off: A. Khairdien
  28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Al Ansar win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  29. 73′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 13–63–24
  30. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ahal · On: S. Mirzoyev · Off: E. Annayev
  31. 77′77′: Y. Govshudov on the scoresheet for Ahal. 1–1 · 11–69–20
  32. 77′We said Al Ansar at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 80–17–2
  33. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Ahal 2–1 Al Ansar · Y. Govshudov
  34. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Ansar win: 55% at kick-off, 2% now
  35. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Ahal win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 69%)
  36. 78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–17–2
  37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al Ansar · On: F. Kacem · Off: M. Bou Saleh
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Ansar · On: A. Akuki · Off: M. El Dor
  39. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ahal · On: H. Bashimov · Off: Y. Garajayev
  40. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Sisi · Al Ansar
  41. FTFULL TIME Ahal 2–1 Al Ansar
  42. FTAhal 2–1 Al Ansar · Al Ansar win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ansar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ahal 21%, draw 24%, Al Ansar 55%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Ahal v Al AnsarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ahal win21%
Draw24%
Al Ansar win55%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChanglimithang Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ahal

Al Ansar

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 20 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ansar winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
55% The market59%
Us55%
Market59%

We make Al Ansar a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ahal v Al Ansar1.03 – 1.78
Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 OctW0 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Al Ansar win59% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 12:48
Our probability · Al Ansar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ahal win21%18%+3
Draw24%23%+1
Al Ansar win55%59%−4
Over 2.5 goals53%55%−2
Both teams to score54%53%+1
Over 1.5 goals77%77%0
Over 3.5 goals31%35%−4
Ahal or draw45%41%+4
Ahal clean sheet17%––
Al Ansar clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 6.4 10.4 9.6 5.7 2.5 1 5.8 11.4 9.8 5.8 2.6 2 3.2 5.7 5.1 3.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ahal down, Al Ansar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · AFC Challenge League this season · since 17 Oct

AHAL

DL2–2 · 1–5

AL ANSAR

WW2–0 · 2–1