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Model 1.2

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Trefelin v Llantwit Major

Trefelin
4–1Full time
Llantwit Major

Welsh Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02
Trefelin 4–1 Llantwit Major TREFELIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Trefelin win78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.072

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trefelin are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trefelin 78%, draw 12%, Llantwit Major 9%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Trefelin v Llantwit MajorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Trefelin win78%
Draw12%
Llantwit Major win9%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trefelin

Llantwit Major

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trefelin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
78% The market–
Us78%

We make Trefelin a 78% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Trefelin v Llantwit Major3.15 – 0.83

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Trefelin win78%––
Draw12%––
Llantwit Major win9%––
Over 2.5 goals73%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals54%––
Trefelin or draw91%––
Trefelin clean sheet45%––
Llantwit Major clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.9%
0123450 2.5 2.4 1 6.8 5.6 2.6 2 8.9 7.4 3.3 3 8.5 6.7 2.9 4 6.7 5.0 2.0 5 4.6 3.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Trefelin down, Llantwit Major across0–5 goals a side shown (86.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsLLA 0–1 TRE · TRE 3–3 LLA · LLA 0–0 TRE · TRE 3–1 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

TREFELIN

No matches in our record yet.

LLANTWIT MAJOR

No matches in our record yet.