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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Welsh Cup › Llay Miners Welfare v Holywell

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Llay Miners Welfare v Holywell

Llay Miners Welfare
3–3Full time
Holywell

Welsh Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Llay Miners Welfare 3–3 Holywell HOLYWELL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Holywell win72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.242

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holywell are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llay Miners Welfare 13%, draw 16%, Holywell 72%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Llay Miners Welfare v HolywellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Llay Miners Welfare win13%
Draw16%
Holywell win72%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llay Miners Welfare

Holywell

553Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Apr 2025 · FAW Championship

Last match: 9 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holywell winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
72% The market–
Us72%

We make Holywell a 72% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Llay Miners Welfare v Holywell1.17 – 2.84

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Llay Miners Welfare win13%––
Draw16%––
Holywell win72%––
Over 2.5 goals76%––
Both teams to score65%––
Over 1.5 goals91%––
Over 3.5 goals57%––
Llay Miners Welfare or draw28%––
Llay Miners Welfare clean sheet6%––
Holywell clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%
0123450 2.0 4.9 7.3 6.9 4.9 2.81 6.2 8.6 8.1 5.7 3.32 3.5 5.0 4.8 3.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Llay Miners Welfare down, Holywell across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting4.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsHOL 2–0 LLA · LLA 2–5 HOL · HOL 3–1 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

LLAY MINERS WELFARE

No matches in our record yet.

HOLYWELL

No matches in our record yet.