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GAP Connah S Quay FC v Porthmadog

GAP Connah S Quay FC
4–0Full time
Porthmadog

Welsh Cup · FRI 16 OCT · Essity Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
GAP Connah S Quay FC 4–0 Porthmadog GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said GAP Connah S Quay FC win91%
The market said84%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.014
The market’s Brier score0.038

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GAP Connah S Quay FC 91%, draw 7%, Porthmadog 2%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on GAP Connah S Quay FC v PorthmadogBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC win91%
Draw7%
Porthmadog win2%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 64

VenueEssity Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Porthmadog

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gap connah s quay fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
91% The market84%
Us91%
Market84%

We make GAP Connah S Quay FC a 91% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.4–0.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · GAP Connah S Quay FC v Porthmadog3.37 – 0.44
The market · GAP Connah S Quay FC win84% · ours 91%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90%95% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 19:16
Our probability · GAP Connah S Quay FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 92%, 91% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
GAP Connah S Quay FC win91%84%+7
Draw7%11%−4
Porthmadog win2%5%−3
Over 2.5 goals73%71%+2
Both teams to score35%41%−6
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals53%52%+1
GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw98%95%+3
GAP Connah S Quay FC clean sheet64%––
Porthmadog clean sheet3%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 14.1%
0123450 2.3 1 7.3 3.4 2 12.5 5.5 3 14.1 6.2 4 11.9 5.3 5 8.0 3.5
under 2% 5% 12%+GAP Connah S Quay FC down, Porthmadog across0–5 goals a side shown (87.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC

No matches in our record yet.

PORTHMADOG

No matches in our record yet.