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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Welsh Cup › Flint Town United v Caernarfon Town

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Flint Town United v Caernarfon Town

Flint Town United
1–3Full time
Caernarfon Town

Welsh Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Essity Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00
Flint Town United 1–3 Caernarfon Town CAERNARFON TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Caernarfon Town win59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caernarfon Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flint Town United 21%, draw 19%, Caernarfon Town 59%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Flint Town United v Caernarfon TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Flint Town United win21%
Draw19%
Caernarfon Town win59%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 64

VenueEssity Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flint Town United

Caernarfon Town

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caernarfon town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
59% The market–
Us59%

We make Caernarfon Town a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Flint Town United v Caernarfon Town1.34 – 2.35

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Flint Town United win21%––
Draw19%––
Caernarfon Town win59%––
Over 2.5 goals71%––
Both teams to score66%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals50%––
Flint Town United or draw41%––
Flint Town United clean sheet10%––
Caernarfon Town clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%
0123450 2.8 5.9 6.9 5.3 3.2 1 3.4 8.0 8.9 6.9 4.1 2.02 2.4 5.3 5.9 4.6 2.7 3 2.4 2.7 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Flint Town United down, Caernarfon Town across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsCAE 3–0 FLI · CAE 3–0 FLI · CAE 1–1 FLI · FLI 2–5 CAE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

FLINT TOWN UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

CAERNARFON TOWN

No matches in our record yet.