Caerau (Ely) v llanelli AFC
Caerau (Ely)llanelli AFCWelsh Cup · FRI 16 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCaerau (Ely) are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Caerau (Ely) 52%, draw 22%, llanelli AFC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Caerau (Ely) win52%llanelli AFC win25%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 64
Match timeline
All events
Caerau (Ely)MINllanelli AFCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Caerau (Ely)
llanelli AFC
Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship
Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Caerau (Ely) a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 27 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caerau (Ely) win | 52% | 79% | −27 |
| Draw | 22% | 14% | +8 |
| llanelli AFC win | 25% | 8% | +17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 53% | +11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 56% | −14 |
| Caerau (Ely) or draw | 75% | 92% | −17 |
| Caerau (Ely) clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| llanelli AFC clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Welsh Cup this season
CAERAU (ELY)
No matches in our record yet.
LLANELLI AFC
No matches in our record yet.