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Model 1.2

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Bala Town v Holyhead Hotspur

Bala Town
3–4Full time
Holyhead Hotspur

Welsh Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Maes Tegid

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Bala Town 3–4 Holyhead Hotspur BALA TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bala Town win71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bala Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bala Town 71%, draw 18%, Holyhead Hotspur 10%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bala Town v Holyhead HotspurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bala Town win71%
Draw18%
Holyhead Hotspur win10%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueMaes Tegid

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bala Town

Holyhead Hotspur

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · FAW Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bala town winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
71% The market–
Us71%

We make Bala Town a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bala Town v Holyhead Hotspur2.20 – 0.71

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 13:35
Our probability · Bala Town win

Published at 72%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bala Town win71%––
Draw18%––
Holyhead Hotspur win10%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score46%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Bala Town or draw90%––
Bala Town clean sheet49%––
Holyhead Hotspur clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%
0123450 5.7 3.6 1 11.7 8.8 3.0 2 13.1 9.4 3.3 3 9.6 6.9 2.5 4 5.3 3.8 5 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+Bala Town down, Holyhead Hotspur across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

BALA TOWN

No matches in our record yet.

HOLYHEAD HOTSPUR

No matches in our record yet.