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Model 1.2

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Afan Lido v Penybont

Afan Lido
2–3Full time
Penybont

Welsh Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23
Afan Lido 2–3 Penybont PENYBONT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Penybont win86%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penybont are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Afan Lido 4%, draw 10%, Penybont 86%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Afan Lido v PenybontBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Afan Lido win4%
Draw10%
Penybont win86%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Afan Lido

Penybont

9Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · FAW Championship

Last match: 9 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penybont winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
86% The market–
Us86%

We make Penybont an 86% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–3.2, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Afan Lido v Penybont0.60 – 3.15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Afan Lido win4%––
Draw10%––
Penybont win86%––
Over 2.5 goals72%––
Both teams to score43%––
Over 1.5 goals89%––
Over 3.5 goals52%––
Afan Lido or draw14%––
Afan Lido clean sheet4%––
Penybont clean sheet55%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 12.3%
0123450 2.5 7.3 11.7 12.3 9.7 6.11 4.6 7.0 7.3 5.8 3.62 2.1 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Afan Lido down, Penybont across0–5 goals a side shown (90.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsPEN 1–1 AFA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Welsh Cup this season

AFAN LIDO

No matches in our record yet.

PENYBONT

No matches in our record yet.