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Trefelin v Flint Town United

Trefelin
0–2Full time
Flint Town United

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · Ynys Park

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30
Trefelin 0–2 Flint Town United FLINT TOWN UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Flint Town United win51%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.367
The market’s Brier score0.527

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Flint Town United win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Flint Town United 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–23–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Trefelin v Flint Town United
  4. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Flint Town United
  5. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Flint Town United
  6. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Flint Town United
  7. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Flint Town United win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Trefelin 0–0 Flint Town United
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Trefelin 0–0 Flint Town United
  10. 47′We said Flint Town United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 23–37–39
  11. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Flint Town United · On: A. Hayder · Off: I. Modi
  12. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Flint Town United win 39%)
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–42–36
  14. 58′Trefelin are down to ten from 58′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 21–45–34
  15. 58′We said Flint Town United at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
  16. 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Trefelin
  17. 60′A goal for Flint Town United on 60′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  18. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Trefelin 0–1 Flint Town United
  19. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Flint Town United win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
  20. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Flint Town United win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 46%)
  21. 62′We said Flint Town United at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–16–80
  22. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Flint Town United win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
  23. 64′T. Owolabi scores for Flint Town United on 61′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–16–81
  24. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Trefelin · On: O. Agar · Off: L. Ware
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Trefelin · On: R. Piper · Off: T. Brock
  26. 66′Flint Town United score on 66′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  27. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Trefelin 0–2 Flint Town United
  28. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Flint Town United win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
  29. 68′We said Flint Town United at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  30. 68′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  31. 72′67′: T. Owolabi on the scoresheet for Flint Town United, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Flint Town United · On: N. Kane · Off: J. Thorn
  33. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Trefelin · On: S. MacDonald · Off: K. Georgievsky
  34. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Flint Town United
  35. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Flint Town United · On: L. Morrison · Off: T. Owolabi
  36. 82′We said Flint Town United at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Trefelin · On: O. Degelman · Off: J. Jones
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Trefelin · On: C. Saunders · Off: B. Aman
  39. FTFULL TIME Trefelin 0–2 Flint Town United
  40. FTTrefelin 0–2 Flint Town United · Flint Town United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flint Town United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trefelin 26%, draw 23%, Flint Town United 51%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Trefelin v Flint Town UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Trefelin win26%
Draw23%
Flint Town United win51%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueYnys Park

RefereeR. Wright

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trefelin

Flint Town United

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Flint Town United13−138
15Trefelin13−236

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flint town united winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
51% The market41%
Us51%
Market41%

We make Flint Town United a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Trefelin v Flint Town United1.21 – 1.79
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 6 v 815 v 14
The market · Flint Town United win41% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 19:21
Our probability · Flint Town United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Trefelin win26%33%−7
Draw23%26%−3
Flint Town United win51%41%+10
Over 2.5 goals57%58%−1
Both teams to score57%61%−4
Over 1.5 goals80%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%39%−4
Trefelin or draw49%59%−10
Trefelin clean sheet18%––
Flint Town United clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.5 8.9 8.0 4.8 2.3 1 6.0 10.7 9.2 5.5 2.5 2 3.8 6.4 5.5 3.3 3 2.7 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Trefelin down, Flint Town United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

TREFELIN

LLDLLW0–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–1

FLINT TOWN UNITED

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1The New Saints13+3837
2GAP Connah S Quay FC13+2131
3Penybont13+1430
4Caernarfon Town13+2226
5Colwyn Bay13+725
6Barry Town13+525
7Cardiff MET13+821
8Airbus UK13+721
9Cambrian & Clydach13−1218
10Llandudno13−116
11Briton Ferry13−1012
12Haverfordwest County AFC13−1110
13Ammanford AFC13−229
14Flint Town United13−138
15Trefelin13−236
16Holywell13−302

The competition's standings before kick-off.