The New Saints v GAP Connah S Quay FC prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

The New SaintsDrawGAP Connah S Quay FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:15

Before kick-off · Match result · The New Saints 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

The New Saints are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: The New Saints 65%, draw 20%, GAP Connah S Quay FC 15%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on The New Saints v GAP Connah S Quay FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

The New Saints win65%

Draw20%

GAP Connah S Quay FC win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 15

VenuePark Hall

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

The New Saints

GAP Connah S Quay FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · the new saints winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make The New Saints a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · The New Saints v GAP Connah S Quay FC~~2.16 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 40 v 34~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
The New Saints win	65%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
GAP Connah S Quay FC win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
The New Saints or draw	85%	–	–
The New Saints clean sheet	40%	–	–
GAP Connah S Quay FC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 4.2 2.0 1 9.8 9.1 4.2 2 10.4 9.5 4.5 3 7.5 6.8 3.2 4 4.1 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+The New Saints down, GAP Connah S Quay FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,087 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

The New Saints at home: 5.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). GAP Connah S Quay FC away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for The New Saints, 0.94 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~THE 2–1 GAP · GAP 1–2 THE · GAP 3–1 THE · GAP 1–3 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept

THE NEW SAINTS

WWWWWW5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 9–0 · 6–1 · 9–0

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC

WWWWWW3–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	+23	34
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	14	+3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	14	−3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	−9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2