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Model 1.2

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The New Saints v Ammanford AFC

The New Saints
9–0Full time
Ammanford AFC

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · Park Hall

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30
The New Saints 9–0 Ammanford AFC THE NEW SAINTS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said The New Saints win95%
The market said94%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.005
The market’s Brier score0.006

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said The New Saints win at 95%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: The New Saints was 95% before kick-off and our model makes it 95% now. 0–0 · 95–4–1
  3. 1′KICK-OFF The New Saints v Ammanford AFC
  4. 15′The New Saints find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' The New Saints 1–0 Ammanford AFC
  6. 16′The New Saints ahead on 14′ through R. Hughes. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  7. 25′A goal for The New Saints on 25′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  8. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' The New Saints 2–0 Ammanford AFC
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 5.2 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  10. 39′The New Saints score on 39′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  11. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' The New Saints 3–0 Ammanford AFC
  12. 42′38′: D. Simeu on the scoresheet for The New Saints, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  13. 45′HALF-TIME The New Saints 3–0 Ammanford AFC
  14. 47′SECOND HALF The New Saints 3–0 Ammanford AFC
  15. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' The New Saints · On: I. Jefferies · Off: J. Lock
  16. 50′The New Saints find the net on 50′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' The New Saints 4–0 Ammanford AFC
  18. 60′A goal for The New Saints on 60′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' The New Saints 5–0 Ammanford AFC
  20. 64′The New Saints score on 63′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 64′6 goals already, more than the 5.2 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 64′⚽ GOAL · 63' The New Saints 6–0 Ammanford AFC
  23. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' The New Saints · On: E. Farrell · Off: Z. Nolan
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ammanford AFC · On: C. Shirt · Off: J. Evans
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ammanford AFC · On: E. Griffiths · Off: A. Orme
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ammanford AFC · On: O. Davies · Off: C. Bell
  27. 74′The New Saints find the net on 74′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' The New Saints 7–0 Ammanford AFC
  29. 75′That is 7, and we only asked for 5.2 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ammanford AFC · On: A. John · Off: C. L. Davies
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ammanford AFC · On: L. Owen · Off: J. M. Case
  32. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' The New Saints · On: A. Wilson · Off: R. Holden
  33. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' The New Saints · On: B. Clark · Off: D. Davies
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' The New Saints · On: J. Williams · Off: B. Young
  35. 86′A goal for The New Saints on 86′ — 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' The New Saints 8–0 Ammanford AFC
  37. 87′8 goals already, more than the 5.2 we expected for the whole match. 8–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 87′J. Bodenham scores for The New Saints on 85′ — 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 91′The New Saints score on 90′ to make it 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
  40. 91′That is 9, and we only asked for 5.2 across ninety minutes. 9–0 · 100–0–0
  41. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' The New Saints 9–0 Ammanford AFC
  42. FTFULL TIME The New Saints 9–0 Ammanford AFC
  43. FTThe New Saints 9–0 Ammanford AFC · The New Saints win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

The New Saints are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: The New Saints 95%, draw 4%, Ammanford AFC 1%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on The New Saints v Ammanford AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

The New Saints win95%
Draw4%
Ammanford AFC win1%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenuePark Hall

RefereeA. D. Livesey

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

The New Saints

Ammanford AFC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1The New Saints13+3837
13Ammanford AFC13−229

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · the new saints winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
95% The market94%
Us95%
Market94%

We make The New Saints a 95% chance to win. The market has them at 94%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 4.7–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · The New Saints v Ammanford AFC4.67 – 0.51
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 SeptW6 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 37 v 91 v 13
The market · The New Saints win94% · ours 95%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
85%90%95%100% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 19:21
Our probability · The New Saints win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 94% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
The New Saints win95%94%+1
Draw4%5%−1
Ammanford AFC win1%2%−1
Over 2.5 goals87%88%−1
Both teams to score38%23%+15
Over 1.5 goals96%94%+2
Over 3.5 goals73%76%−3
The New Saints or draw99%98%+1
The New Saints clean sheet61%––
Ammanford AFC clean sheet1%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 10.5%
0123450 1 3.2 2 6.7 3.5 3 9.6 4.9 4 10.5 5.2 5 9.5 4.6
under 2% 5% 12%+The New Saints down, Ammanford AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (67.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

THE NEW SAINTS

WWWWWW2–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 9–0 · 6–1

AMMANFORD AFC

LDLLWW0–5 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1The New Saints13+3837
2GAP Connah S Quay FC13+2131
3Penybont13+1430
4Caernarfon Town13+2226
5Colwyn Bay13+725
6Barry Town13+525
7Cardiff MET13+821
8Airbus UK13+721
9Cambrian & Clydach13−1218
10Llandudno13−116
11Briton Ferry13−1012
12Haverfordwest County AFC13−1110
13Ammanford AFC13−229
14Flint Town United13−138
15Trefelin13−236
16Holywell13−302

The competition's standings before kick-off.