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Penybont v Barry Town

Penybont

3–1Full time

Barry Town

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Bryntirion Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Penybont 3–1 Barry Town PENYBONT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Penybont win~~43%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.360

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Penybont win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Penybont 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Penybont v Barry Town
11′11′ and it is 0–1: Barry Town have scored. 0–1 · 19–23–58
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Penybont 0–1 Barry Town
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Penybont win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Barry Town win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Penybont win 19%)
14′⚽ GOAL · 11' Penybont 0–1 Barry Town · J. Lester
16′We said Penybont at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Penybont 1–1 Barry Town
22′Penybont ahead on 18′ through E. Cann. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–30–29
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Penybont win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Penybont win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Barry Town win 29%)
26′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Barry Town · On: J. Bernard · Off: W. Richards
26′⚽ GOAL · 11' Penybont 1–1 Barry Town · J. Lester
26′⚽ GOAL · 18' Penybont 1–1 Barry Town · E. Cann
29′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Barry Town · On: J. Bernard · Off: W. Richards
29′⚽ GOAL · 11' Penybont 1–1 Barry Town · J. Lester
29′⚽ GOAL · 18' Penybont 1–1 Barry Town · E. Cann
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Penybont 2–1 Barry Town
45′HALF-TIME Penybont 2–1 Barry Town
46′SECOND HALF Penybont 2–1 Barry Town
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Penybont 3–1 Barry Town
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Penybont · On: C. Venables · Off: E. Cann
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barry Town · On: J. Fahiya · Off: R. Schwank
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Penybont · On: D. Barrow · Off: O. Pritchard
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Barry Town
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Barry Town · On: A. Njie · Off: C. Sainty
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Penybont · On: A. Debono · Off: L. Shephard
FTPenybont 3–1 Barry Town · Penybont win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Penybont win43%

Draw26%

Barry Town win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Bryntirion Park

Referee · C. Charlton-Fleming

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Penybont

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Pennock

3 M. Melbourne

4 T. Mehew

6 M. Davies

7 N. Wood

8 O. Pritchard

10 E. Cann

17 D. Jefferies

20 M. Manga

23 T. Walker

32 L. Shephard

Coach · Rhys Griffiths

Substitutes

1 · D. Higgs

9 · C. Venables

14 · I. Phillips

21 · A. Baker

5 · A. Debono

24 · D. Barrow

33 · E. Vaughan

Barry Town

Formation not confirmed

31 G. Ratcliffe

2 M. George

3 E. Williams

4 C. Sainty

6 K. Davies

8 D. Barton

9 J. Crosbie

11 R. Schwank

16 J. Lester

21 J. Shaw

24 W. Richards

Coach · Andy Legg

Substitutes

19 · J. Bernard

41 · J. Grinter

45 · A. Njie

70 · J. Fahiya

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Penybont

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Pennock

3 M. Melbourne

4 T. Mehew

6 M. Davies

7 N. Wood

8 O. Pritchard

10 E. Cann

17 D. Jefferies

20 M. Manga

23 T. Walker

32 L. Shephard

Coach · Rhys Griffiths

Substitutes

1 · D. Higgs

9 · C. Venables

14 · I. Phillips

21 · A. Baker

5 · A. Debono

24 · D. Barrow

33 · E. Vaughan

Barry Town

Formation not confirmed

31 G. Ratcliffe

2 M. George

3 E. Williams

4 C. Sainty

6 K. Davies

8 D. Barton

9 J. Crosbie

11 R. Schwank

16 J. Lester

21 J. Shaw

24 W. Richards

Coach · Andy Legg

Substitutes

19 · J. Bernard

41 · J. Grinter

45 · A. Njie

70 · J. Fahiya

Our number · penybont winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

43% The market51%

Us43%

~~Market~~51%

We make Penybont a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penybont win	43%	51%	−8
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Barry Town win	30%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−5
Penybont or draw	70%	76%	−7
Penybont clean sheet	31%	–	–
Barry Town clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.6 8.0 5.0 2.0 1 9.9 12.3 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penybont down, Barry Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.42 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penybont at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barry Town away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Penybont, 1.20 for Barry Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.42

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~PEN 0–2 BAR · BAR 1–0 PEN · PEN 1–1 BAR · BAR 2–3 PEN

Form · last six in Premier League

PENYBONT

WWWWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

BARRY TOWN

LWDLLW0–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2