Home › Football › Premier League › Llandudno v Airbus UK

Llandudno v Airbus UK

Llandudno

1–4Full time

Airbus UK

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Maesdu Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Llandudno 1–4 Airbus UK LLANDUDNO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llandudno win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.733

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llandudno win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Llandudno was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Llandudno v Airbus UK
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Llandudno 1–0 Airbus UK
11′B. Maher scores for Llandudno on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Llandudno win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
17′We published Llandudno at 46%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–12
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Llandudno 1–1 Airbus UK
22′21′ and it is 1–1: Airbus UK have scored. 1–1 · 43–27–30
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Llandudno win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK
28′⚽ GOAL · 8' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · B. Maher
28′⚽ GOAL · 22' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · G. Peers
28′⚽ GOAL · 25' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · J. Evans
31′⚽ GOAL · 8' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · B. Maher
31′⚽ GOAL · 22' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · G. Peers
31′⚽ GOAL · 25' Llandudno 1–2 Airbus UK · J. Evans
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Llandudno 1–3 Airbus UK
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Airbus UK
45′HALF-TIME Llandudno 1–3 Airbus UK
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Llandudno
46′SECOND HALF Llandudno 1–3 Airbus UK
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Llandudno
51′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Llandudno
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Llandudno 1–4 Airbus UK
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Llandudno · On: C. Morris · Off: N. Flint
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Llandudno
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Llandudno
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Airbus UK · On: J. Roberts · Off: J. Parry
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Airbus UK · On: O. Lancely · Off: G. Peers
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Llandudno · On: M. Williams · Off: L. Hughes
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Airbus UK · On: O. Lancely · Off: G. Peers
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Airbus UK · On: K. Evans · Off: N. Williams
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Airbus UK · On: O. Calland · Off: M. Blackwell-Jones
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Llandudno
FTLlandudno 1–4 Airbus UK · Llandudno win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Llandudno win46%

Draw23%

Airbus UK win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Maesdu Park

Referee · B. Markham-Jones

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Llandudno

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Torrance

2 C. Stephens

3 A. Stephens

4 I. Cartwright

16 B. Maher

18 K. Smith

21 K. Edwards

26 J. Lloyd

28 L. Hughes

29 L. Higgins

52 N. Flint

Coach · –

Substitutes

51 · J. Fisher

6 · R. Weaver

7 · K. Lloyd

8 · M. Cadwallader

12 · C. Morris

22 · M. Williams

34 · K. Pritchard

Airbus UK

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Fallon

4 J. Stevenson

6 S. Rickett

7 M. Blackwell-Jones

8 J. Evans

9 J. Parry

10 K. Cooke

11 G. Peers

12 B. Diau

22 S. Moscrop

23 N. Williams

Coach · Mark Allen

Substitutes

21 · J. Carroll

3 · K. Evans

14 · J. Hughes

17 · J. Roberts

18 · O. Calland

19 · O. Lancely

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Llandudno

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Torrance

2 C. Stephens

3 A. Stephens

4 I. Cartwright

16 B. Maher

18 K. Smith

21 K. Edwards

26 J. Lloyd

28 L. Hughes

29 L. Higgins

52 N. Flint

Coach · –

Substitutes

51 · J. Fisher

6 · R. Weaver

7 · K. Lloyd

8 · M. Cadwallader

12 · C. Morris

22 · M. Williams

34 · K. Pritchard

Airbus UK

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Fallon

4 J. Stevenson

6 S. Rickett

7 M. Blackwell-Jones

8 J. Evans

9 J. Parry

10 K. Cooke

11 G. Peers

12 B. Diau

22 S. Moscrop

23 N. Williams

Coach · Mark Allen

Substitutes

21 · J. Carroll

3 · K. Evans

14 · J. Hughes

17 · J. Roberts

18 · O. Calland

19 · O. Lancely

Our number · llandudno winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Llandudno a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llandudno win	46%	44%	+1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Airbus UK win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+1
Llandudno or draw	69%	70%	−1
Llandudno clean sheet	24%	–	–
Airbus UK clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 5.5 4.2 2.1 1 6.9 10.2 7.1 3.5 2 6.3 8.7 6.2 3.0 3 3.8 5.2 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llandudno down, Airbus UK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Llandudno at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Airbus UK away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Llandudno, 1.45 for Airbus UK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

LLANDUDNO

WLDLLL2–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–1

AIRBUS UK

WLLWLW2–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2