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Holywell v The New Saints

Holywell

1–6Full time

The New Saints

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Bartons North Wales Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Holywell 1–6 The New Saints THE NEW SAINTS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–4 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said The New Saints win~~94%

~~The market said~~91%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.006

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.012

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said The New Saints win at 94%.
1′KICK-OFF Holywell v The New Saints
2′Little has changed for our model: The New Saints 94% before kick-off, 95% now. 0–0 · 1–4–95
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Holywell 0–1 The New Saints
33′⚽ GOAL · 31' Holywell 0–1 The New Saints
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Holywell 1–1 The New Saints
45′HALF-TIME Holywell 1–1 The New Saints
46′SECOND HALF Holywell 1–1 The New Saints
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Holywell 1–2 The New Saints
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Holywell
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' The New Saints · On: J. Williams · Off: D. Williams
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Holywell 1–3 The New Saints
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Holywell 1–4 The New Saints
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Holywell 1–4 The New Saints · J. Bodenham
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Holywell · On: D. McGiveron · Off: O. Davies
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' The New Saints · On: I. Jefferies · Off: J. Lock
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' The New Saints · On: E. Farrell · Off: D. Simeu
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' The New Saints · On: B. Clark · Off: D. Redmond
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' The New Saints · On: Z. Nolan · Off: R. Hughes
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Holywell · On: J. Reed · Off: J. Sconce
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Holywell · On: C. Bedford · Off: R. Edwards
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Holywell 1–5 The New Saints
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Holywell 1–6 The New Saints
FTHolywell 1–6 The New Saints · The New Saints win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–4 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Holywell win2%

Draw4%

The New Saints win94%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Bartons North Wales Stadium

Referee · T. Owen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Holywell

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Swindell

28 H. Morris

3 M. Davies

12 J. Tierney

6 D. Sullivan

34 R. Edwards

19 J. Sconce

8 T. Dogan

9 O. Davies

27 F. Yonsian

18 C. Hughes

Coach · Johnny Haseldin

Substitutes

31 · E. Collins

21 · L. Williams

20 · S. Baker

16 · D. McGiveron

14 · F. Murtas

17 · J. Reed

2 · C. Bedford

The New Saints

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Shepperd

4 D. Corness

6 J. Bodenham

9 B. Young

10 D. Redmond

14 D. Williams

16 D. Simeu

18 R. Holden

20 R. Hughes

22 D. Davies

34 J. Lock

Coach · Craig Harrison

Substitutes

44 · G. Jenkins

15 · E. Farrell

17 · J. Williams

19 · B. Clark

23 · Z. Nolan

37 · I. Jefferies

42 · R. Clarke-Phillips

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Holywell

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Swindell

28 H. Morris

3 M. Davies

12 J. Tierney

6 D. Sullivan

34 R. Edwards

19 J. Sconce

8 T. Dogan

9 O. Davies

27 F. Yonsian

18 C. Hughes

Coach · Johnny Haseldin

Substitutes

31 · E. Collins

21 · L. Williams

20 · S. Baker

16 · D. McGiveron

14 · F. Murtas

17 · J. Reed

2 · C. Bedford

The New Saints

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Shepperd

4 D. Corness

6 J. Bodenham

9 B. Young

10 D. Redmond

14 D. Williams

16 D. Simeu

18 R. Holden

20 R. Hughes

22 D. Davies

34 J. Lock

Coach · Craig Harrison

Substitutes

44 · G. Jenkins

15 · E. Farrell

17 · J. Williams

19 · B. Clark

23 · Z. Nolan

37 · I. Jefferies

42 · R. Clarke-Phillips

Our number · the new saints winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

94% The market92%

Us94%

~~Market~~92%

We make The New Saints a 94% chance to win. The market has them at 92%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–4.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · the new saints win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 90% to 92% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holywell win	2%	2%	0
Draw	4%	6%	−1
The New Saints win	94%	92%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Both teams to score	47%	38%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	97%	91%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	78%	70%	+8
Holywell or draw	6%	8%	−2
Holywell clean sheet	1%	–	–
The New Saints clean sheet	53%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–4 at 8.8%

0123450 2.3 5.1 7.6 8.8 8.41 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.22 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holywell down, The New Saints across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Holywell at home: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). The New Saints away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.66 goals for Holywell, 4.75 for The New Saints. Most likely score 0–4.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

HOLYWELL

DLLLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

THE NEW SAINTS

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 9–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2