Holywell v Penybont prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Penybont are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holywell 11%, draw 15%, Penybont 75%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Holywell v PenybontBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Holywell win11%

Draw15%

Penybont win75%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueBartons North Wales Stadium

RefereeR. Jenkins

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holywell

Penybont

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
16	Holywell	13	−30	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penybont winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

75% The market72%

Us75%

~~Market~~72%

We make Penybont a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holywell v Penybont~~0.95 – 2.83

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 30~~16 v 3

~~The market · Penybont win~~72% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Penybont win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holywell win	11%	11%	0
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Penybont win	75%	72%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	65%	+6
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	81%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	51%	44%	+7
Holywell or draw	25%	28%	−3
Holywell clean sheet	7%	–	–
Penybont clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.1%

0123450 2.7 6.7 9.1 8.3 5.9 3.61 2.4 6.4 8.3 7.5 5.2 3.12 3.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holywell down, Penybont across0–5 goals a side shown (92.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,080 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holywell at home: 1.17 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). Penybont away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Holywell, 2.83 for Penybont. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PEN 2–1 HOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

HOLYWELL

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–6

PENYBONT

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	13	+38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	+22	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	+7	25
6	Barry Town	13	+5	25
7	Cardiff MET	13	+8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	+7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	−12	18
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	−10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	−22	9
14	Flint Town United	13	−13	8
15	Trefelin	13	−23	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2