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Haverfordwest County AFC v Caernarfon Town

Haverfordwest County AFC

1–2Full time

Caernarfon Town

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Bridge Meadow Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Haverfordwest County AFC 1–2 Caernarfon Town CAERNARFON TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caernarfon Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.424

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.286

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caernarfon Town win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF Haverfordwest County AFC v Caernarfon Town
2′Much as we predicted: Caernarfon Town was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 28–25–47
13′12′ and it is 0–1: Caernarfon Town have scored. 0–1 · 10–17–72
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Caernarfon Town
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Caernarfon Town win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
19′We published Caernarfon Town at 47%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 10–18–73
29′⚽ GOAL · 12' Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Caernarfon Town · Z. Clarke
32′⚽ GOAL · 12' Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Caernarfon Town · Z. Clarke
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Haverfordwest County AFC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Haverfordwest County AFC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Haverfordwest County AFC
45′HALF-TIME Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Caernarfon Town
46′SECOND HALF Haverfordwest County AFC 0–1 Caernarfon Town
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Haverfordwest County AFC
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Haverfordwest County AFC
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Haverfordwest County AFC · On: L. Rees · Off: R. Abbruzzese
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Haverfordwest County AFC · On: B. Ahmun · Off: H. Thomas
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Haverfordwest County AFC
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Haverfordwest County AFC 1–1 Caernarfon Town
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Haverfordwest County AFC 1–2 Caernarfon Town
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Haverfordwest County AFC
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Haverfordwest County AFC · On: O. Jones · Off: C. Twose
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Caernarfon Town · On: D. Smith · Off: A. Cieslewicz
FTHaverfordwest County AFC 1–2 Caernarfon Town · Caernarfon Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Haverfordwest County AFC win28%

Draw25%

Caernarfon Town win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Bridge Meadow Stadium

Referee · A. Jones

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Haverfordwest County AFC

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Knott

2 D. Rees

3 R. Abbruzzese

8 C. Shephard

10 D. Hawkins

15 J. Owen

16 C. Twose

17 K. McCarthy

18 G. Walters

25 J. Walker

27 H. Thomas

Coach · Tony Pennock

Substitutes

30 · L. Myers

4 · K. Kenniford

6 · J. Bacon

9 · L. Rees

14 · B. Phillips

20 · O. Jones

28 · B. Ahmun

Caernarfon Town

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Thomas

5 P. Mooney

6 J. Canavan

9 Z. Clarke

10 O. Evans

11 A. Cieslewicz

14 N. Edwards

16 B. Nash

18 H. Charsley

23 C. Marriott

27 R. Sears

Coach · Richard Davies

Substitutes

17 · J. Williams

7 · P. Mendes

15 · D. Smith

19 · S. Bradley

21 · S. Nyamwanza

25 · O. Zanzala

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Haverfordwest County AFC

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Knott

2 D. Rees

3 R. Abbruzzese

8 C. Shephard

10 D. Hawkins

15 J. Owen

16 C. Twose

17 K. McCarthy

18 G. Walters

25 J. Walker

27 H. Thomas

Coach · Tony Pennock

Substitutes

30 · L. Myers

4 · K. Kenniford

6 · J. Bacon

9 · L. Rees

14 · B. Phillips

20 · O. Jones

28 · B. Ahmun

Caernarfon Town

Formation not confirmed

13 H. Thomas

5 P. Mooney

6 J. Canavan

9 Z. Clarke

10 O. Evans

11 A. Cieslewicz

14 N. Edwards

16 B. Nash

18 H. Charsley

23 C. Marriott

27 R. Sears

Coach · Richard Davies

Substitutes

17 · J. Williams

7 · P. Mendes

15 · D. Smith

19 · S. Bradley

21 · S. Nyamwanza

25 · O. Zanzala

Our number · caernarfon town winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

47% The market56%

Us47%

~~Market~~56%

We make Caernarfon Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · caernarfon town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haverfordwest County AFC win	28%	20%	+8
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Caernarfon Town win	47%	56%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Haverfordwest County AFC or draw	53%	44%	+10
Haverfordwest County AFC clean sheet	20%	–	–
Caernarfon Town clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 9.4 7.8 4.3 1 6.9 11.6 9.0 4.9 2.1 2 4.3 6.8 5.4 2.9 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Haverfordwest County AFC down, Caernarfon Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 6 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haverfordwest County AFC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Caernarfon Town away: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Haverfordwest County AFC, 1.63 for Caernarfon Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 15

~~Both scored~~10 of 15

~~Last meetings~~CAE 2–2 HAV · HAV 1–1 CAE · HAV 3–1 CAE · HAV 1–1 CAE

Form · last six in Premier League

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC

DWWLLL1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

CAERNARFON TOWN

WWDWDL3–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 9–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2