Home › Football › Premier League › GAP Connah S Quay FC v Llandudno

GAP Connah S Quay FC v Llandudno

GAP Connah S Quay FC

2–0Full time

Llandudno

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Essity Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Llandudno GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said GAP Connah S Quay FC win~~70%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.132

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GAP Connah S Quay FC win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: GAP Connah S Quay FC was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′KICK-OFF GAP Connah S Quay FC v Llandudno
2′A goal for GAP Connah S Quay FC on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
2′We published GAP Connah S Quay FC at 70%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' GAP Connah S Quay FC 1–0 Llandudno
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' GAP Connah S Quay FC win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Llandudno
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Llandudno
17′SUBSTITUTION · 15' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: R. Watson · Off: S. Flynn
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–4
37′A red card for Llandudno on 36′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 86–11–3
37′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Llandudno
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' GAP Connah S Quay FC
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Llandudno
45′HALF-TIME GAP Connah S Quay FC 1–0 Llandudno
46′SECOND HALF GAP Connah S Quay FC 1–0 Llandudno
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Llandudno · On: K. Smith · Off: N. Flint
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: A. Sharif · Off: I. Murray
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Llandudno
60′GAP Connah S Quay FC score on 60′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
60′We published GAP Connah S Quay FC at 70%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Llandudno
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' GAP Connah S Quay FC win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Llandudno
63′58′: H. Franklin on the scoresheet for GAP Connah S Quay FC, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
63′🟨 YELLOW · 59' B. Maher · Llandudno
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Llandudno · On: C. Morris · Off: H. Bennett
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Llandudno · On: L. Hughes · Off: K. Lloyd
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: H. Mehasseb · Off: J. Hodkin
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: C. Partridge · Off: F. Deane
79′We published GAP Connah S Quay FC at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' GAP Connah S Quay FC win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Llandudno · On: M. Cadwallader · Off: C. Stephens
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Llandudno · On: M. Williams · Off: B. Maher
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: F. Redshaw · Off: M. Woodcock
FTFULL TIME GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Llandudno
FTGAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Llandudno · GAP Connah S Quay FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GAP Connah S Quay FC 70%, draw 17%, Llandudno 13%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on GAP Connah S Quay FC v LlandudnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC win70%

Draw17%

Llandudno win13%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 14

VenueEssity Stadium

RefereeA. McInch

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Llandudno

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gap connah s quay fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market65%

Us70%

~~Market~~65%

We make GAP Connah S Quay FC a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GAP Connah S Quay FC v Llandudno~~2.49 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 31 v 16~~2 v 10

~~The market · GAP Connah S Quay FC win~~65% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GAP Connah S Quay FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GAP Connah S Quay FC win	70%	65%	+5
Draw	17%	21%	−4
Llandudno win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	44%	37%	+7
GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw	87%	86%	+1
GAP Connah S Quay FC clean sheet	41%	–	–
Llandudno clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%

0123450 3.9 3.3 1 8.5 7.7 3.6 2 10.2 8.9 4.1 3 8.3 7.2 3.2 4 5.3 4.5 5 2.9 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+GAP Connah S Quay FC down, Llandudno across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GAP Connah S Quay FC at home: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Llandudno away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC, 0.90 for Llandudno. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LLA 2–1 GAP · GAP 2–0 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC

LWWWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

LLANDUDNO

LDLLLL1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	13	+5	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16
11	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
12	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
13	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2