Flint Town United v Holywell prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Flint Town UnitedDrawHolywell

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Flint Town United 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flint Town United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flint Town United 68%, draw 16%, Holywell 15%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Flint Town United v HolywellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Flint Town United win68%

Draw16%

Holywell win15%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueEssity Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flint Town United

Holywell

7Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
16	Holywell	13	−30	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flint town united winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Flint Town United a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flint Town United v Holywell~~2.78 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 2~~13 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flint Town United win	68%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Holywell win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Flint Town United or draw	85%	–	–
Flint Town United clean sheet	30%	–	–
Holywell clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.2 2.4 1 5.2 6.4 3.9 2 7.0 8.3 5.1 2.2 3 6.3 7.4 4.6 4 4.4 5.1 3.1 5 2.6 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Flint Town United down, Holywell across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,087 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flint Town United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Holywell away: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.78 goals for Flint Town United, 1.23 for Holywell. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FLI 1–2 HOL · HOL 1–0 FLI · FLI 1–1 HOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

FLINT TOWN UNITED

LLWWLW0–5 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

HOLYWELL

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	+23	34
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	14	+3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	14	−3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	−9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2