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Flint Town United v Colwyn Bay

Flint Town United

0–1Full time

Colwyn Bay

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Essity Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay COLWYN BAY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colwyn Bay win~~46%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 48 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colwyn Bay win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Flint Town United v Colwyn Bay
2′Little has changed for our model: Colwyn Bay 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 29–25–47
3′Little has changed for our model: Colwyn Bay 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Colwyn Bay
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay
45′S. Forde scores for Colwyn Bay on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay
46′SECOND HALF Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Flint Town United · On: A. Francis · Off: C. Wilson
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Flint Town United
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Colwyn Bay
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Flint Town United
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Flint Town United
72′🟨 YELLOW · 2' A. Davies · Colwyn Bay
72′⚽ GOAL · 26' Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay · S. Forde
72′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Flint Town United · On: A. Francis · Off: C. Wilson
72′🟨 YELLOW · 65' T. Owolabi · Flint Town United
72′🟨 YELLOW · 65' D. Poole · Colwyn Bay
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' L. Mendes · Flint Town United
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Flint Town United
75′🟨 YELLOW · 2' A. Davies · Colwyn Bay
75′⚽ GOAL · 26' Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay · S. Forde
75′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Flint Town United · On: A. Francis · Off: C. Wilson
75′🟨 YELLOW · 65' T. Owolabi · Flint Town United
75′🟨 YELLOW · 65' D. Poole · Colwyn Bay
75′🟨 YELLOW · 69' L. Mendes · Flint Town United
75′🟨 YELLOW · 71' I. Modi · Flint Town United
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Flint Town United · On: L. Morrison · Off: M. Burke
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Colwyn Bay · On: E. Roberts · Off: S. Hart
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Colwyn Bay · On: L. Robles · Off: A. Davies
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Colwyn Bay
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colwyn Bay · On: J. Kenny · Off: J. Davies
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Flint Town United · On: Y. Marquez · Off: T. Owolabi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colwyn Bay · On: J. Kenny · Off: J. Davies
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Flint Town United · On: Y. Marquez · Off: T. Owolabi
FTFULL TIME Flint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay
FTFlint Town United 0–1 Colwyn Bay · Colwyn Bay win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Flint Town United win29%

Draw25%

Colwyn Bay win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:15

Venue · Essity Stadium

Referee · J. A. Jones

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Flint Town United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Flint

2 H. Dean

3 M. Burke

4 H. McGahey

5 H. Owen

7 L. Mendes

9 T. Owolabi

10 J. Malkin

14 C. Wilson

19 L. Jonas

23 I. Modi

Coach · Daniel Holmes

Substitutes

13 · Z. Dempsey

6 · J. Thorn

33 · A. Lear

12 · A. Francis

18 · L. Morrison

39 · Y. Marquez

Colwyn Bay

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Halstead

3 S. Hart

4 N. Peate

5 L. Sirrell

6 S. Forde

8 C. Bratley

9 A. Davies

11 J. Davies

16 J. Williams

22 D. Poole

23 A. Edwards

Coach · Michael Wilde

Substitutes

31 · C. Bubb

2 · D. Roberts

10 · L. Robles

17 · E. Roberts

19 · M. Hill

25 · B. Efan

7 · J. Kenny

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Flint Town United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Flint

2 H. Dean

3 M. Burke

4 H. McGahey

5 H. Owen

7 L. Mendes

9 T. Owolabi

10 J. Malkin

14 C. Wilson

19 L. Jonas

23 I. Modi

Coach · Daniel Holmes

Substitutes

13 · Z. Dempsey

6 · J. Thorn

33 · A. Lear

12 · A. Francis

18 · L. Morrison

39 · Y. Marquez

Colwyn Bay

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Halstead

3 S. Hart

4 N. Peate

5 L. Sirrell

6 S. Forde

8 C. Bratley

9 A. Davies

11 J. Davies

16 J. Williams

22 D. Poole

23 A. Edwards

Coach · Michael Wilde

Substitutes

31 · C. Bubb

2 · D. Roberts

10 · L. Robles

17 · E. Roberts

19 · M. Hill

25 · B. Efan

7 · J. Kenny

Our number · colwyn bay winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

46% The market57%

Us46%

~~Market~~57%

We make Colwyn Bay a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · colwyn bay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flint Town United win	29%	19%	+9
Draw	25%	23%	+1
Colwyn Bay win	46%	57%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Flint Town United or draw	54%	43%	+11
Flint Town United clean sheet	20%	–	–
Colwyn Bay clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 9.3 7.6 4.2 1 7.0 11.5 9.0 4.9 2.1 2 4.4 6.9 5.5 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flint Town United down, Colwyn Bay across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,079 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flint Town United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Colwyn Bay away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Flint Town United, 1.63 for Colwyn Bay. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–2 FLI · FLI 0–1 COL

Form · last six in Premier League

FLINT TOWN UNITED

LDLLWW0–3 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–0

COLWYN BAY

LWWWWL0–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	13	+38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	+22	26
5	Barry Town	13	+5	25
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	13	+8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	+7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	−12	18
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	−10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	−22	9
14	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
15	Trefelin	13	−23	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2