Colwyn Bay v Cardiff MET

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Colwyn Bay win at 46%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Colwyn Bay 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Colwyn Bay v Cardiff MET
4. 21′Cardiff MET find the net on 21′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–57
5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Colwyn Bay 0–1 Cardiff MET
6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
7. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Cardiff MET win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Colwyn Bay win 43%)
8. 22′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
9. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Cardiff MET
10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 16–25–59
12. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Colwyn Bay
13. 35′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
14. 36′Colwyn Bay are down to ten from 35′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 14–25–61
15. 36′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Colwyn Bay
16. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Cardiff MET
17. 45′HALF-TIME Colwyn Bay 0–1 Cardiff MET
18. 46′SECOND HALF Colwyn Bay 0–1 Cardiff MET
19. 49′A goal for Colwyn Bay on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–43–23
20. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Colwyn Bay 1–1 Cardiff MET
21. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
22. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cardiff MET win 65%)
23. 50′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
24. 60′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
25. 62′Colwyn Bay score on 62′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
26. 62′We said Colwyn Bay at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
27. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Colwyn Bay 2–1 Cardiff MET
28. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
29. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Colwyn Bay win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 52%)
30. 64′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–3
31. 71′Colwyn Bay find the net on 71′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Colwyn Bay · On: E. Roberts · Off: J. Kenny
33. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cardiff MET · On: R. Reynolds · Off: S. Dymond-Hall
34. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Colwyn Bay 3–1 Cardiff MET
35. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
36. 72′We said Colwyn Bay at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–1 · 98–1–0
37. 72′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–1–0
38. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Colwyn Bay 2–2 Cardiff MET
39. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Colwyn Bay
40. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
41. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Colwyn Bay win 99%)
42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
43. 84′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
44. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Colwyn Bay win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
45. 91′We said Colwyn Bay at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
46. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Colwyn Bay · On: M. Hill · Off: J. Davies
47. FTFULL TIME Colwyn Bay 2–2 Cardiff MET
48. FTColwyn Bay 2–2 Cardiff MET · Colwyn Bay win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.