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Cambrian & Clydach v Ammanford AFC

Cambrian & Clydach

0–1Full time

Ammanford AFC

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC CAMBRIAN & CLYDACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cambrian & Clydach win~~63%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.085

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cambrian & Clydach win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF Cambrian & Clydach v Ammanford AFC
2′Little has changed for our model: Cambrian & Clydach 63% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–18
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC
6′3′ and it is 0–1: J. M. Case on the scoresheet for Ammanford AFC. 0–1 · 42–21–37
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Cambrian & Clydach win: 63% at kick-off, 42% now
13′We said Cambrian & Clydach at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–22–38
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Ammanford AFC win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Cambrian & Clydach win 35%)
30′⚽ GOAL · 3' Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC · J. M. Case
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Cambrian & Clydach
33′⚽ GOAL · 3' Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC · J. M. Case
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Cambrian & Clydach
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Cambrian & Clydach
45′HALF-TIME Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC
46′SECOND HALF Cambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ammanford AFC
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Cambrian & Clydach
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Cambrian & Clydach
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Cambrian & Clydach · On: J. Morris · Off: H. Bright
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Cambrian & Clydach · On: D. Edwards · Off: C. Strinati
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Cambrian & Clydach
72′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Ammanford AFC
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ammanford AFC · On: C. L. Davies · Off: J. Evans
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cambrian & Clydach · On: B. Gill · Off: J. Karadogan Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ammanford AFC · On: C. Shirt · Off: J. M. Case
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ammanford AFC · On: L. Davies · Off: L. Sylvester
90′🟥 RED CARD · 98' Cambrian & Clydach
FTCambrian & Clydach 0–1 Ammanford AFC · Cambrian & Clydach win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cambrian & Clydach win63%

Draw18%

Ammanford AFC win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Referee · R. Kenny

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cambrian & Clydach

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Absalom

5 K. Jones

6 A. John

7 F. Thomas

8 J. Woodford

9 A. Bonthron

10 L. Eason

12 C. Strinati

18 K. Lewis

31 J. Wright

40 H. Bright

Coach · Liam Williams

Substitutes

13 · M. Morgan

3 · D. Birch

11 · D. Edwards

21 · B. Gill

20 · J. Karadogan

14 · J. Morris

27 · C. Driscoll

Ammanford AFC

Formation not confirmed

80 T. Wright

2 S. Woodhouse

5 C. Bell

6 M. Delaney

8 A. Orme

10 C. Thomas

12 L. Sylvester

13 J. Hopkins

22 H. Rowe

24 J. Evans

30 J. M. Case

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · O. Williams

7 · A. John

17 · C. L. Davies

19 · O. Davies

26 · L. Davies

20 · H. Lloyd

25 · C. Shirt

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cambrian & Clydach

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Absalom

5 K. Jones

6 A. John

7 F. Thomas

8 J. Woodford

9 A. Bonthron

10 L. Eason

12 C. Strinati

18 K. Lewis

31 J. Wright

40 H. Bright

Coach · Liam Williams

Substitutes

13 · M. Morgan

3 · D. Birch

11 · D. Edwards

21 · B. Gill

20 · J. Karadogan

14 · J. Morris

27 · C. Driscoll

Ammanford AFC

Formation not confirmed

80 T. Wright

2 S. Woodhouse

5 C. Bell

6 M. Delaney

8 A. Orme

10 C. Thomas

12 L. Sylvester

13 J. Hopkins

22 H. Rowe

24 J. Evans

30 J. M. Case

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · O. Williams

7 · A. John

17 · C. L. Davies

19 · O. Davies

26 · L. Davies

20 · H. Lloyd

25 · C. Shirt

Our number · cambrian & clydach winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

63% The market70%

Us63%

~~Market~~70%

We make Cambrian & Clydach a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cambrian & clydach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cambrian & Clydach win	63%	70%	−7
Draw	18%	18%	0
Ammanford AFC win	19%	12%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	75%	66%	+10
Both teams to score	68%	56%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	56%	46%	+10
Cambrian & Clydach or draw	81%	88%	−7
Cambrian & Clydach clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ammanford AFC clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.4 2.6 1 4.9 6.9 4.6 2.2 2 6.3 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 5.4 7.1 4.8 2.3 4 3.6 4.7 3.1 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Cambrian & Clydach down, Ammanford AFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Cambrian & Clydach at home: 2.00 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Ammanford AFC away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Cambrian & Clydach, 1.38 for Ammanford AFC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

CAMBRIAN & CLYDACH

DWWLWL2–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–9 · 4–3 · 0–9

AMMANFORD AFC

LLDLLW0–2 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2