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Caernarfon Town v Briton Ferry

Caernarfon Town

3–1Full time

Briton Ferry

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · The Oval

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Caernarfon Town 3–1 Briton Ferry CAERNARFON TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caernarfon Town win~~66%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caernarfon Town win at 66%.
1′KICK-OFF Caernarfon Town v Briton Ferry
2′Little has changed for our model: Caernarfon Town 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–16
27′A goal for Caernarfon Town on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
27′We said Caernarfon Town at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Caernarfon Town 1–0 Briton Ferry
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Caernarfon Town win: 66% at kick-off, 83% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
31′Caernarfon Town score on 31′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caernarfon Town 2–0 Briton Ferry
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Caernarfon Town win: 66% at kick-off, 95% now
32′We said Caernarfon Town at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Caernarfon Town win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Caernarfon Town 2–0 Briton Ferry
46′SECOND HALF Caernarfon Town 2–0 Briton Ferry
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Briton Ferry
70′Caernarfon Town find the net on 70′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′We said Caernarfon Town at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Caernarfon Town 3–0 Briton Ferry
75′Caernarfon Town ahead on 71′ through H. Charsley. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Caernarfon Town · On: D. Smith · Off: J. Piggott
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Briton Ferry · On: L. Herdman · Off: C. Hurford
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Briton Ferry · On: L. Bowen · Off: O. Anderson
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Briton Ferry · On: M. Nicholls · Off: M. Bates
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Caernarfon Town · On: O. Zanzala · Off: O. Evans
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Briton Ferry · On: J. Jones · Off: D. Packer
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Caernarfon Town · On: S. Nyamwanza · Off: S. Bradley
95′A goal for Briton Ferry on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Caernarfon Town 3–1 Briton Ferry
FTFULL TIME Caernarfon Town 3–1 Briton Ferry
FTCaernarfon Town 3–1 Briton Ferry · Caernarfon Town win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caernarfon Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caernarfon Town 66%, draw 18%, Briton Ferry 16%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Caernarfon Town v Briton FerryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Caernarfon Town win66%

Draw18%

Briton Ferry win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueThe Oval

RefereeI. A. Griffith

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caernarfon Town

Briton Ferry

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Welsh Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Caernarfon Town	13	+22	26
11	Briton Ferry	13	−10	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caernarfon town winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

66% The market67%

Us66%

~~Market~~67%

We make Caernarfon Town a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caernarfon Town v Briton Ferry~~2.48 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 26 v 12~~4 v 11

~~The market · Caernarfon Town win~~67% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Caernarfon Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caernarfon Town win	66%	67%	−1
Draw	18%	19%	−1
Briton Ferry win	16%	14%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	47%	+1
Caernarfon Town or draw	84%	86%	−2
Caernarfon Town clean sheet	34%	–	–
Briton Ferry clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 3.2 1 6.9 7.8 4.3 2 8.4 9.1 5.0 3 6.9 7.3 4.0 4 4.3 4.6 2.5 5 2.3 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Caernarfon Town down, Briton Ferry across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,080 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.6% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caernarfon Town at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Briton Ferry away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for Caernarfon Town, 1.11 for Briton Ferry. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAE 4–1 BRI · BRI 2–5 CAE · BRI 0–1 CAE · CAE 3–2 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

CAERNARFON TOWN

WDWDLW5–0 · 1–1 · 9–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

BRITON FERRY

LLDDWL1–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	13	+38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	+21	31
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	+22	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	+7	25
6	Barry Town	13	+5	25
7	Cardiff MET	13	+8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	+7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	−12	18
10	Llandudno	13	−1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	−10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	−11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	−22	9
14	Flint Town United	13	−13	8
15	Trefelin	13	−23	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2