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Briton Ferry v GAP Connah S Quay FC

Briton Ferry

1–2Full time

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Old Road

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Briton Ferry 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GAP Connah S Quay FC win~~59%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.257

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.233

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GAP Connah S Quay FC win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: GAP Connah S Quay FC was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 19–22–59
1′KICK-OFF Briton Ferry v GAP Connah S Quay FC
7′PENALTY MISSED · 6' Briton Ferry
8′A goal for Briton Ferry on 6′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 19–24–58
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Briton Ferry
25′PENALTY MISSED · 6' T. Walters · Briton Ferry
25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' M. Bates · Briton Ferry
28′PENALTY MISSED · 6' T. Walters · Briton Ferry
28′🟨 YELLOW · 23' M. Bates · Briton Ferry
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Briton Ferry 1–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Briton Ferry
45′HALF-TIME Briton Ferry 1–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC
46′SECOND HALF Briton Ferry 1–0 GAP Connah S Quay FC
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Briton Ferry
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: M. Woodcock · Off: H. Mehasseb
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: F. Deane · Off: R. Watson
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Briton Ferry · On: L. Bowen · Off: O. Anderson
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Briton Ferry 1–1 GAP Connah S Quay FC
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Briton Ferry 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Briton Ferry
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Briton Ferry
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Briton Ferry · On: M. Nicholls · Off: T. Price
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' GAP Connah S Quay FC · On: F. Redshaw · Off: J. Hodkin
FTBriton Ferry 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC · GAP Connah S Quay FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Briton Ferry win19%

Draw23%

GAP Connah S Quay FC win59%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Old Road

Referee · J. Walker

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Briton Ferry

Formation not confirmed

13 W. Fuller

2 L. Bates

3 D. Packer

8 T. Price

9 T. Walters

11 C. Hurford

12 J. Lloyd

15 L. Cooper

16 M. Bates

18 R. George

20 O. Anderson

Coach · Andy Dyer

Substitutes

14 · L. Bowen

21 · J. Jones

22 · L. Herdman

23 · M. Nicholls

25 · D. Gilpin

26 · T. Cadeau

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Renshaw

5 A. Hughes

6 D. Cowan

8 C. West

9 J. Hodkin

10 I. Murray

12 H. Franklin

21 R. Watson

23 A. Sharif

34 C. Partridge

99 H. Mehasseb

Coach · John Disney

Substitutes

82 · O. Cropper

7 · D. Stephenson

17 · A. McCoy

18 · M. Woodcock

27 · F. Redshaw

16 · F. Deane

55 · A. Jones

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Briton Ferry

Formation not confirmed

13 W. Fuller

2 L. Bates

3 D. Packer

8 T. Price

9 T. Walters

11 C. Hurford

12 J. Lloyd

15 L. Cooper

16 M. Bates

18 R. George

20 O. Anderson

Coach · Andy Dyer

Substitutes

14 · L. Bowen

21 · J. Jones

22 · L. Herdman

23 · M. Nicholls

25 · D. Gilpin

26 · T. Cadeau

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Renshaw

5 A. Hughes

6 D. Cowan

8 C. West

9 J. Hodkin

10 I. Murray

12 H. Franklin

21 R. Watson

23 A. Sharif

34 C. Partridge

99 H. Mehasseb

Coach · John Disney

Substitutes

82 · O. Cropper

7 · D. Stephenson

17 · A. McCoy

18 · M. Woodcock

27 · F. Redshaw

16 · F. Deane

55 · A. Jones

Our number · gap connah s quay fc winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make GAP Connah S Quay FC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gap connah s quay fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Briton Ferry win	19%	17%	+2
Draw	23%	23%	0
GAP Connah S Quay FC win	59%	61%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	−1
Briton Ferry or draw	41%	39%	+2
Briton Ferry clean sheet	16%	–	–
GAP Connah S Quay FC clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.3 10.6 10.2 6.5 3.2 1 5.3 10.5 9.5 6.0 2.9 2 2.7 5.0 4.6 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Briton Ferry down, GAP Connah S Quay FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,072 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Briton Ferry at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). GAP Connah S Quay FC away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Briton Ferry, 1.91 for GAP Connah S Quay FC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAP 4–2 BRI · BRI 0–3 GAP · BRI 1–0 GAP · GAP 0–1 BRI

Form · last six in Premier League

BRITON FERRY

LLLDDW0–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC

DLWWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	12	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	−11	18
10	Llandudno	12	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	−9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	−10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	−12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	−23	6
15	Trefelin	12	−25	3
16	Holywell	12	−25	2