Barry Town v Trefelin prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Barry TownDrawTrefelin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Barry Town 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barry Town are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barry Town 74%, draw 16%, Trefelin 10%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Barry Town v TrefelinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Barry Town win74%

Draw16%

Trefelin win10%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 15

VenueJenner Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barry Town

Trefelin

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Welsh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Barry Town	14	+3	25
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barry town winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Barry Town a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barry Town v Trefelin~~2.58 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 6~~6 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barry Town win

Published at 75%, 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barry Town win	74%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Trefelin win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Barry Town or draw	90%	–	–
Barry Town clean sheet	46%	–	–
Trefelin clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 3.9 2.9 1 9.0 7.2 3.0 2 11.1 8.6 3.5 3 9.4 7.1 2.9 4 6.2 4.6 5 3.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barry Town down, Trefelin across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,087 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barry Town at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trefelin away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.58 goals for Barry Town, 0.79 for Trefelin. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TRE 1–2 BAR · BAR 2–1 TRE · BAR 3–0 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Sept

BARRY TOWN

DLLWLL2–2 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

TREFELIN

LDLLWL0–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	The New Saints	14	+47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	+23	34
3	Penybont	13	+14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	+24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	+7	26
6	Barry Town	14	+3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	+8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	+8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	−13	18
10	Llandudno	14	−3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	−9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	−12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	−11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	−31	9
15	Trefelin	14	−25	6
16	Holywell	13	−30	2