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Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC

Barry Town
1–3Full time
Haverfordwest County AFC

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Jenner Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Barry Town 1–3 Haverfordwest County AFC BARRY TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Barry Town win49%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.866
The market’s Brier score0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Barry Town win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Barry Town was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Barry Town
  5. 27′Barry Town find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  6. 27′We published Barry Town at 49%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
  7. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Barry Town 1–0 Haverfordwest County AFC
  8. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Barry Town win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
  9. 28′GOAL DISALLOWED · 28' Barry Town
  10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Barry Town win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
  11. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Haverfordwest County AFC
  12. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Barry Town win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  13. 42′Haverfordwest County AFC find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–26–61
  14. 42′We said Barry Town at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–26–61
  15. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Barry Town 0–1 Haverfordwest County AFC
  16. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Barry Town win: 49% at kick-off, 13% now
  17. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Haverfordwest County AFC win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Barry Town win 39%)
  18. 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–62
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Barry Town 0–1 Haverfordwest County AFC
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Barry Town 0–1 Haverfordwest County AFC
  21. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Haverfordwest County AFC
  22. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Haverfordwest County AFC · On: J. Owen · Off: J. Wilson
  23. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Barry Town
  24. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Barry Town
  25. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Barry Town
  26. 53′We said Barry Town at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  27. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Barry Town win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  28. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barry Town · On: J. Crosbie · Off: E. Dugan
  29. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Barry Town
  30. 68′We said Barry Town at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  31. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Barry Town
  32. 80′A goal for Haverfordwest County AFC on 80′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  33. 80′A red card for Barry Town on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Barry Town · On: S. Spence · Off: D. Barton
  35. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Barry Town 0–2 Haverfordwest County AFC
  36. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Barry Town
  37. 80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Barry Town
  38. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' O. Cuddihy · Barry Town
  39. 83′Barry Town score on 83′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  40. 83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  41. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Barry Town 1–2 Haverfordwest County AFC
  42. 85′Haverfordwest County AFC find the net on 84′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  43. 85′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  44. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Barry Town 1–3 Haverfordwest County AFC
  45. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Haverfordwest County AFC
  46. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Haverfordwest County AFC · On: R. Watts · Off: C. Twose
  47. FTFULL TIME Barry Town 1–3 Haverfordwest County AFC
  48. FTBarry Town 1–3 Haverfordwest County AFC · Barry Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barry Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barry Town 49%, draw 26%, Haverfordwest County AFC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barry Town win49%
Draw26%
Haverfordwest County AFC win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 14

VenueJenner Park

RefereeB. Williams

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barry Town

Haverfordwest County AFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Welsh Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Barry Town13+525
13Haverfordwest County AFC13−1110

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barry town winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
49% The market45%
Us49%
Market45%

We make Barry Town a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC1.52 – 1.01
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 25 v 106 v 13
The market · Barry Town win45% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:14
Our probability · Barry Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barry Town win49%45%+4
Draw26%27%−1
Haverfordwest County AFC win25%28%−3
Over 2.5 goals46%54%−8
Both teams to score49%57%−8
Over 1.5 goals71%77%−6
Over 3.5 goals25%34%−9
Barry Town or draw75%72%+3
Barry Town clean sheet37%––
Haverfordwest County AFC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 8.6 8.0 4.1 1 12.0 12.1 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 8.9 4.5 3 4.7 4.6 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Barry Town down, Haverfordwest County AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsBAR 1–1 HAV · BAR 4–0 HAV · HAV 0–2 BAR · HAV 2–3 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 11 Sept

BARRY TOWN

WDLLWL4–1 · 2–2 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3

HAVERFORDWEST COUNTY AFC

WWLLLL3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1The New Saints14+4740
2GAP Connah S Quay FC13+2131
3Penybont13+1430
4Caernarfon Town14+2429
5Colwyn Bay14+726
6Barry Town13+525
7Airbus UK14+824
8Cardiff MET14+822
9Cambrian & Clydach14−1318
10Llandudno13−116
11Briton Ferry14−1212
12Flint Town United14−1111
13Haverfordwest County AFC13−1110
14Ammanford AFC14−319
15Trefelin14−256
16Holywell13−302

The competition's standings before kick-off.